Gibbs has averaged 25.1 half PPR points in eight games that Montgomery has missed or played in under 25% snaps. Not only is Monty gone, but Isiah Pacheco is now on IR. This will be the most valuable role in fantasy football pretty clearly.
![](\"https://pprrankings.com/api/storage/objects/uploads/01f81b1c-caa0-4bf3-9875-d549fc34d1a8.png\")
He's projected for 19.9 half PPR point on 118.5 total yards in the betting markets right now, and the Lions have the highest team total this week at 28.75 points.
The Saints are a feisty defense but not one to overly adjust to. Last year, they were worse against the run than to receiving RBs, which has been a trend in the DC Brandon Staley defense for years.
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Nacua has \"only\" averaged 8.2-85-0.60 receiving in 5 career contests against the 49ers, good for 16.2 half PPR points per game. But those also included two games of 52% and 43% snaps, so he's roasted them just like every other team on a per-snap basis. The 49ers are dealing with return-to-play front-seven players who are being dragged on 15+ hour flights, and their secondary is just okay.
Nacua is projected for a league-high 88.5 receiving yards on a league-high 11.5 targets this week. LA has a 26.0-point team total, which is notably lower than their nearly 30-point scoring average from 2025.
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Chase gets a pass-funnel matchup to start off. The Bucs were 6th in passing yards allowed versus 27th in rush yards. Teams facing DT Vita Vea simply pass the ball, and that's especially true with fairly unproven starters at CB2 and in the slot. The Bengals are 3rd in projected points (27.0), and Chase will eat. He's projected for 87.5 yards on 10.5 targets. Only Puka Nacua has the edge over him this week.
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Last year's RB2 on RB2 usage is set up for a similar season with Brian Robinson Jr. attempting to fill the Tyler Allgeier complementary, bruising role. It's possible Bijan doesn't have the full goal-line role, but we're here for the receptions (4.6 per game last year) and explosives.
The Falcons are only 28th in projected points this week in Pittsburgh, where they'll face off with one of the best defensive lines and a reworked secondary. Last year, the Steelers were the 4th-best fantasy RB defense when adjusting for schedule. It's one of the worst spots of the year, and he'll have Tua Tagovailoa in a new scheme to lead the offense.
Bijan is projected for 18.1 half PPR points and 113.5 total yards by the betting markets.
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The Lions have the highest team total of Week 1 (28.75 points), and the Saints have 2025 3rd-rounder Jonas Sanker in the slot to defend him. There is nothing negative to say about the set up this week. I'm surprised his betting market projections aren't even higher: 6.5 for 78.5 on 9.5 targets.
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A similar formula may be needed here with the 49ers listed as 3.5-point underdogs on the No. 18 team total. It looks like 4th-round LG Carver Willis will be starting next to the other 4 returning starters on the OL. McCaffrey is projected for 16.4 half PPR points by the betting markets.
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The Packers without Micah Parsons are a great spot to start out hot. In 5 games without him to close last year, they allowed the 5th-highest EPA per dropback and 8th most passing yards per game, with the lowest sack rate (2.2%). Heck, even Jefferson put up 101 yards in Week 18 with JJ McCarthy and Max Brosmer!
They're starting Keisean Nixon and Carrington Valentine at outside CB, and they will reportedly play more man coverage and do it with more off coverage. That's dangerous against Jefferson's gumby like movements.
Jefferson is back to elite WR1 status in this home, domed matchup. Minnesota has the 10th-highest team total of the week.
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They'll need them against a potentially great Ravens defense under new HC Jesse Minter, who was an elite defensive coordinator before. Indianapolis is only projected for the 19th-most points at home after being 1st in scoring through Week 13 with Daniel Jones healthy last year.
Taylor was the RB1 on RB2 usage during that stretch, averaging 23.3 half PPR points and 107 rushing yards. Insane. He's only projected for 15.3 half PPR points and 94.5 total yards this week because of the matchup and health uncertainty.
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The matchup is amazing. The Saints project for 21.25 points against the Lions, and the game script is obviously pass first as 7.0-point dogs in a dome environment. Both offenses play with aggressive pace, and the Lions' secondary is a total mess. ESPN's Ben Solak notes the Lions starting secondary is the oldest of any team in the last 15 years. They don't have the speed to match with Olave. They won't have Ss Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph.
![](\"/api/storage/objects/uploads/0dc1a032-9780-4c29-bc89-8fd0ceea594c.png\")
Only Puka Nacua projects for more targets (10.5) by the betting markets.
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Of course, the Dolphins only project for 18.5 points (31st), so he has to win with receiving and overall volume to maintain his RB5 per-game finish in PPR last year. Miami was only 25th in scoring last year when he did that for what it's worth.
The matchup is fantastic. The Raiders were 25th against fantasy RBs last year because they struggled stopping the run. They changed out their starting LBs to fix that, but it's still a horrible starting DT combo. Give me LT Patrick Paul, 1st-round LG Kadyn Proctor and C Aaron Brewer over them. Easily.
I like Achane for more than his projected 15.1 half PPR points.
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Washington is attempting to improve their run defense with 1st-round LB Sonny Styles, LB Leo Chenal, EDGE Odafe Oweh, and DT Tim Settle added this offseason, but last year, opposing RB rooms averaged 20 more rushing yards per game than their season average, which was the 3rd-worst. In terms of schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs, Washington was 4th worst.
Equally as import, the Eagles own offense looks better this year. The OL is healthy right now after missing a ton of time last season, and new OC Sean Mannion is likely tiers better than last year's static play caller. Barkley should be closer to his 2024 RB1 overall finish than last year's RB14 overall finish this year.
Week 1 is a great time to get the party started. The Eagles are 9th in projected points as 4.5-points home favorites.
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This time around, the Seahawks are projected for 23.75 points (11th) at home with a first-time play caller. The offense will remain balanced with downfield play-action shots as the primary focus of the pass game. It'll be nearly impossible to replicate the +10.2 completion percentage over expected that JSN had last year with a white hot Sam Darnold, but JSN is in consideration for best route runner in the league. Darnold has always had a great deep ball, too.
WR rooms facing the Patriots last year averaged 24 fewer receiving yards than their season-long average. They're extra solid against No. 1 WRs because of Gonzalez. They held Courtland Sutton to 17 yards, Quentin Johnston to 20 yards, and Jayden Higgins (without Nico Collins) to 59 yards during their playoff run as an example.
This is a challenging opener for JSN. He's still projected for 82.5 receiving yards by the betting markets. That's a real discount to his 100-yard average from 2025.
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With George Pickens balling out last year, Lamb averaged 89 receiving yards per game on a 26% target share, if we remove his two injured games. He was the WR8 on WR6 usage, with the only real difference being he scored 0.25 touchdowns per game rather than his baseline of 0.37. Long story short, Pickens' breakout just made the Cowboys a better offense. It didn't really matter for Lamb's fantasy production.
Meanwhile, the Giants are going to attempt being more stout on the ground under HC John Harbaugh, but they could get quite exposed in the secondary with Greg Newsome and Deonte Banks as their top outside CBs. Dru Phillips has had competitive moments but is a volatile slot CB, too. It's a great matchup to open with, and the Cowboys No. 5 implied team total reflects that.
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![](\"/api/storage/objects/uploads/b7ce52c8-01c5-4378-ab45-3011a463ff8d.png\")
The Colts are improved up front with 2nd-round LB C.J. Allen drafted and star DT DeForest Buckner healthy after just 10 games last year, and Indianapolis was league average in the advanced rushing metrics last year. It's not a bad matchup. It's just neutral.
The Ravens are 6th in projected points (25.5) in this road, domed environment as 3.5-point favorites. Henry has averaged 43 more rushing yards in career wins, 104 to 61. The Big Dog is projected for 14.4 half PPR points and 80.5 rushing yards by the betting markets.
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That's especially true in this great matchup. The Giants' starting CBs were in a competition throughout camp (read: bad) and were vulnerable whenever left on islands last year. More resources will be spent loading the box with this new defensive scheme, and the Giants could get exposed through the air, even with a great pass rush. There's simply not enough talent in the secondary.
Pickens might be a little more volatile than other fantasy WR1s, but he's projected for a strong 70.5 yards and 8.5 targets by the betting markets. Those are less than what he averaged with Lamb last year. There's been consistent talk out of camp that Pickens was the best player on the team.
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The Chargers are tied for 1st in projected points (28.75) this week at home against the Cardinals as 10-point favorites. The game script couldn't get better than this.
![](\"/api/storage/objects/uploads/3ba706b0-9c09-4fb8-8b96-c632828e4fec.png\")
Arizona was 7th-worst against fantasy RBs last year, and they're mostly relying on improvements and better health up front to change things around.
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The matchup is more neutral. The Bills have an offense that can keep pace with the Texans' elite defense, but Buffalo was a run funnel last season, allowing the 5th most rushing yards and the 2nd fewest pass yards per game. It's a new scheme under DC Jim Leonard but the secondary is still a tier better than their front seven, in part because CB1 Christian Benford is legit.
The Texans are 22nd in projected points, and Collins has a 68.5-yard projection by the betting markets as a low-end WR1.
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It's an eruption spot. New York should be improved against the run under HC John Harbaugh with some new pieces, but they did also lost star DT Dexter Lawrence. The starting point is the worst schedule-adjusted defense against fantasy RBs. Dead last. They were also last in EPA per carry allowed.
![](\"/api/storage/objects/uploads/fbe2cb97-09cd-4010-a4a5-dea7e3eb0631.png\")
Williams put up 25.0 half PPR points on 150 total yards in Week 2 last year against them. He's projected for 85.5 total yards and 13.7 half PPR points by the betting markets. His TD projection is near the top of the league.
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The debate really is two fold: Is Mike Washington such an upgrade over last year's RB2, to the point that Jeanty's near league-high snap share going to come meaningfully down? (I think so.) Are the Raiders actually better this year? (I think so with new HC Klint Kubiak and C Tyler Linderbaum.) If both are yes, then it's probably a slightly better situation for his fantasy projection than last year, when he finished as the RB16 on RB11 usage in half PPR, buoying his fantasy appeal with receptions (RB9 per game) rather than rushing yards (RB23 per game).
The Raiders are 3.0-point favorites against the tanking Dolphins, with a 21.75-point team total (21st). Jeanty averaged 22.7 carries and 2.3 receptions in 3 wins last year versus 14.1 carries and 4.3 receptions in 15 losses. Jeanty should clear 15 carries here, even if Washington factors in as a potentially fun change-of-pace rusher.
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OC Josh McDaniels handed an older version of Davante Adams 180 and 175 targets just a few years ago with far worse QB play, so the upside remains in tact.
The Seahawks still provide a very challenging matchup under HC Mike McDonald with CB1 Devon Witherspoon tasked with partially stopping him. There is a potential drop down to their CB2 after Riq Woolen departed, and star SCB Nick Emmanwori (questionable) is banged up, while FS Ty Okada is ruled out.
If there's a time to catch the Seahawks secondary, now is it. The Patriots are still projected for just 20.75 points (24th). TreVeyon Henderson will not be available, potentially setting up more dropbacks than normal.
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Etienne was paid well to be the base-down starter, a role that will lead to 15+ touches per week and almost all goal-line chances. In that role last year, Etienne was the per-game RB11 on RB14 usage. With Kamara out, Etienne could play more passing downs this week, as unproven RB3 Kendre Miller is his backup for the outing.
The Saints staff has talked up Etienne even more than the Jaguars ever did, and it's easy to argue this Saints OL will be the best he's played behind. It's an underrated good environment with New Orleans playing with the fastest neutral pace under HC Kellen Moore.
The matchup is neutral at best. The Lions were the 12th-best defense against fantasy RBs last season and look a bit better up front this season, even if the secondary is worse. The Saints have the No. 21 projected team total (21.75) while playing on the road as 7.0-point dogs. Kamara missing would open up more reception chances, which could come in handy given the game script.
Etienne is projected for 12.8 half PPR points and 80.5 total yards by the betting markets. Those will go up if Kamara is ruled out. Audric Estime and Kendre Miller were also dealing with injuries last week, and Devin Neal was released.
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![](\"/api/storage/objects/uploads/71072987-900d-49cb-b4c3-33ea702a52f1.png\")
Smith was just at 64 YPG and 7.0 targets in games with AJB over that same sample. This could be a 10-20 receiving yards per game trade for Smith.
The matchup is ripe for a big outing. The Commanders were horrific last year in every phase. They were 8th worst against fantasy WRs when adjusting for schedule, and they're still only starting Rasul Douglas, Mike Sainristil, and SCB Amik Robertson in the secondary with a no-namer at free safety.
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The Ravens have the 6th-best team total of Week 1 (26.5 points) against a Colts defense that was picked apart last year. They were 3rd worst against fantasy WRs and allowed the second most passing yards per game. CB1 Sauce Gardner is returning from an achilles tear and slot Justin Walley is making his NFL debut coming off an ACL tear. It's a good spot in a domed environment.
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With Patrick Mahomes (ACL) returning from major surgery and with only 5th-round rookie Emmitt Johnson behind him, Walker is set for an elite workload. As the Seahawks bellcow during their Super Bowl run, Walker averaged 23.0 PPR points (RB3) on 18.9 expected points (RB5). Those are similar numbers to what the peak RBs under coach Andy Reid put up before the Chiefs ignored and whiffed on the position in recent years. Remember Jamal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Brian Westbrook, Kareem Hunt, Deuce Staley? I do. Well, not Staley (personally too young).
The opening matchup is difficult, however. The Broncos were 6th-best against fantasy RBs when adjusting for schedule. They are without EDGE Jonathan Cooper right now and lost DT2 John Franklin-Meyers this offseason at least. Because Denver is so elite at man coverage and use it at the highest rate (45% last year), the Chiefs are encouraged to run the ball in neutral situations, as their top receivers are horrible against press man.
Walker is projected for 82.5 total yards, while the Chiefs are 13th in projected points (23.25) at home on Monday Night Football. I like the higher on 2.5 receptions. Reid used to love the RB screen. Those get brought back this year.
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There are times when the Bengals won't be pushed and those provide lower-floor outcomes than others in this tier, but this season opener is against a pass-funnel Buccaneers defense that is routinely allowing opposing offenses to pass more than normal in neutral situations. Tampa Bay allowed the 6th-most receiving yards per game last year.
![](\"/api/storage/objects/uploads/8df297bd-7111-4e75-906b-988f0f31226a.png\")
Higgins has a great ceiling with the Bengals projected for 27.0 points (3rd most). The betting markets have him projected for 11.4 half PPR points and 60.5 receiving yards as an upside WR2.
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The opening matchup is tougher with 1st-round EDGE Rueben Bain, DT A'Shawn Robinson, and two veteran starting LBs added to a front that features star DT Vita Vea. Last year's unit was worse, and opposing RB rooms averaged 16 fewer yards than their season average against Tampa Bay. Rushing yards will be difficult to find this week. At the same time, the Bucs allowed a league-high 19 more receiving yards per game to RB rooms compared to their league average. That plays into Brown's strengths. As a whole, the Bucs were 19th against fantasy RBs.
The Bengals, while healthy, are a total unit. They're projected for the 3rd-most points (27.0) this week as 3.5-point home favorites. Brown projects for 14.7 half PPR points in the betting markets, the 8th most.
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![](\"/api/storage/objects/uploads/aed2922c-d701-442e-8a6f-fec66f7eed79.png\")
The matchup is that death sentence. The Texans have one of the best defenses on paper of the decade. They were the 2nd-best defense against fantasy RBs last year after adjusting for schedule. Opposing RB rooms averaged 20 fewer rush yards per game against Houston compared to their season averages (3rd worst). Since then, they've added run-stopper Jadaveon Clowney and 2nd-round NT Kayden McDonald to the rotation. Nasty work.
Cook's Week 1 projection is way lower than it typically is. He's only projected for 12.6 half PPR points on 93.5 total yards by the betting markets. His projected 74.5 rushing yards are almost exactly 20 yards less than last year's 94-yard average. That lines up with my data in the previous paragraph. Buffalo is only 23rd in projected points as 1.5-point road dogs, too.
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https://x.com/2Hats1Mike/status/2095543006958940386
We'll see if new OC Frank Reich can avoid losing his job midseason for about the fourth-straight time, but it shouldn't be hard to get Wilson the ball with a real, experienced QB.
The Titans reworked their lowly defense under HC Robert Saleh this offseason. They overpaid, but they did add Alontae Taylor and Cor'Dale Flott at CB while improving their DL. They are absolutely still down one quality third CB, however, and it's the first action this unit has had together. It's a good spot for Wilson all things considered.
Wilson is still WR20 in the betting markets because the Jets are only projected for 19.0 points on the road. That's the 3rd lowest.
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The opening matchup in Tennessee is a little tougher than you'd think with HC Robert Saleh having star DT Jeffrey Simmons, DT John Franklin-Myers, and EDGE Jermaine Johnson to work with. They should be better than the 9th-worse fantasy RB defense in 2026, though tackle-leading LB Cedric Gray is suddenly in the concussion protocol from an ATV accident.
The Jets are still only projected for 19.0 points here, the No. 29 projected team. Hall's bellcow status has him projected for 85.5 total yards and 12.9 half PPR points by the betting markets.
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The matchup is exciting with Chicago missing S Coby Bryant and SCB Kyler Gordon right now. Their pass rush is still lackluster, though camp reports suggest CB1 Jaylon Johnson is feeling back to himself after a disappointing 2025 season. Johnson being good or bad this season will ultimately determine if Chicago is anywhere near as bad as they were last year against fantasy WRs (2nd worst). I'd guess they are still one to target, yet improved with 1st-round S Dillon Thieneman involved.
McMillan will be forced into plenty of targets if the Bears offense is as good as they hope. Carolina is a 3.0-point dog on the road with a 22.25-point team total.
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The Cardinals defense will be better in 2026 with better health, but they were 18th against fantasy WRs last season. McConkey will see some of CB1 Will Johnson but mostly catch Garrett Williams and Denzel Burke as the flanker and slot. It's the best matchup in the secondary. With the Chargers projected for a league-high 28.25 points this week, McConkey is an upside WR2.
","analysisLocked":false,"confidence":null,"isHaydenPlay":false,"isSleeper":false,"tag":null,"rankerSlug":"hayden","updatedAt":"2026-09-14T20:18:45.298Z","analysisUpdatedAt":"2026-09-09T19:46:08.677Z","adp":null,"yahooAdp":null,"overallRank":16,"week":1,"season":2026,"format":"PPR","latestTweet":null,"player":{"id":567,"slug":"ladd-mcconkey","name":"Ladd McConkey","team":"Los Angeles Chargers","position":"WR","imageUrl":"https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nfl/players/full/4612826.png","bio":null,"nflTeamAbbr":"LAC","isSleeper":false,"pickemRecYards":854.5,"pickemRecTds":5.5,"pickemRushYards":null,"pickemRushTds":null,"pickemPassYards":null,"pickemPassTds":null}},{"id":723225,"rank":16,"opponent":"CAR","gameTimeEt":"13:00","gameDate":"2026-09-13","isHome":false,"last4Rank":18,"last4ExpRank":34,"qbxRank":null,"matchupRank":5,"overUnder":47.5,"teamImpliedPoints":25.25,"teamImpliedRank":6,"oppImpliedPoints":22.25,"lastMeeting":null,"practice":null,"projection":null,"verdict":"Swift is an RB1 if Monangai (knee) can't play","analysis":"Update: Kyle Monangai will play.
Waiting on Kyle Monangai's official status after he had a hyper-extended knee on August 17th, but even if he's able to grit it out, Monangai is probably looking at a smaller role in the opener than he had last year. Even while splitting time, Swift was the RB13 on RB17 usage from Week 5 on when the Bears started figuring things out in HC Ben Johnson's first season. Swift was the RB5 in success rate during that stretch, showing better vision while running behind a great OL. Their most-important three linemen return.
The matchup is great, too. The Bears are 7th in projected points (24.75), and the Panthers were rough against the run last year. They did add EDGE1 Jaelan Phillips and LB1 Devin Lloyd this offseason, so they'll likely be more average than bad this year.
Swift is top-10 in projected fantasy points (14.1 half PPR) per the betting markets on a projected 86.5 total yards.
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The Patriots averaged 19.6 half PPR points between the RB room, and Stevenson is set to inherit almost all of it with Corey Kiner as his backup. It's a low-end RB1 workload.
![](\"/api/storage/objects/uploads/e5dea858-763e-4ec7-9492-984362ceb8a6.png\")
Unfortunately, it's a rematch of the Super Bowl loss, but now it's also in Seattle. The Seahawks were the best defense against fantasy RBs after adjusting for schedule; opposing RB rooms averaged 2.2 fewer points per game against them. They were 1st in stopping RB rushing TDs, though they did allow the most targets to RBs (7.1) at the same time. Stevenson should catch 3-4 passes here to provide some level of a floor. He scored 14.8 half PPR points on 63 total yards and 5 receptions in the Patriots' Super Bowl loss.
Stevenson has an 11.8-point projection in half PPR on 85.5 total yards by the betting markets. New England is 24th in projected points at 20.5. This will be a great test for a reworked interior OL that added injured star LG Alijah Vera-Tucker and moved 2025 3rd-round athlete Jared Wilson back to C.
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![](\"https://pprrankings.com/api/storage/objects/uploads/ebc07899-f164-4114-b117-c5805d7f4844.png\")
The matchup is just difficult. The Chiefs play everyone tight, and they have 6th-overall pick CB1 Mansoor Delane to track Waddle. If it's not him, it'll be underrated CB2 Nohl Williams or veteran slot La'Jarius Sneed. It's a solid group, and Kansas City has more horses up front it. A repeat of last year's No. 3 most difficult defense against fantasy WRs when adjusting for schedule would not be surprising.
The Broncos project for just 20.5 points on the road. Waddle's projected 8.5 targets by the betting markets will hopefully lead to more than 53.5 projected receiving yards. That feels light to me.
","analysisLocked":false,"confidence":null,"isHaydenPlay":false,"isSleeper":false,"tag":null,"rankerSlug":"hayden","updatedAt":"2026-09-14T20:18:45.298Z","analysisUpdatedAt":"2026-09-09T19:53:53.109Z","adp":null,"yahooAdp":null,"overallRank":17,"week":1,"season":2026,"format":"PPR","latestTweet":null,"player":{"id":569,"slug":"jaylen-waddle","name":"Jaylen Waddle","team":"Denver Broncos","position":"WR","imageUrl":"https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nfl/players/full/4372016.png","bio":null,"nflTeamAbbr":"DEN","isSleeper":false,"pickemRecYards":null,"pickemRecTds":null,"pickemRushYards":null,"pickemRushTds":null,"pickemPassYards":null,"pickemPassTds":null}},{"id":723033,"rank":18,"opponent":"CIN","gameTimeEt":"13:00","gameDate":"2026-09-13","isHome":false,"last4Rank":102,"last4ExpRank":94,"qbxRank":null,"matchupRank":32,"overUnder":50.5,"teamImpliedPoints":23.5,"teamImpliedRank":13,"oppImpliedPoints":27,"lastMeeting":null,"practice":null,"projection":null,"verdict":"Egbuka gets neutral matchup with some snaps vs. CB1 DJ Turner","analysis":"Egbuka's rookie season will be remembered for his WR9 start through Week 11, and then a rug-pull WR64 finishing from Week 12-18. There are splits to get to that can explain some of that. Like Baker Mayfield's shoulder injury (fixed), Egbuka's hamstring injury (fixed), and Mike Evans target competition (fixed).
The upside is very clear with new OC Zac Robinson's history with high-volume inside-out receivers. Cooper Kupp won the triple crown when Robinson was on the Rams' staff. Then Drake London was kicked inside far more than before when he was the WR5 on a per-game basis in a very mediocre offense. Egbuka has traits somewhere between those type of receivers and always projected for a slot/flanker role. He played X receiver in a pinch last year.
The Bengals have a great CB1 in DJ Turner, but these two won't face off every snap because how much Egbuka will move around. There's a dropoff to CB2 Dax Hill and slot Jalen Davis, so it's a positive matchup all things considered, as the returning starting LB group was one of the worst I've ever seen.
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Skattebo came back from a dislocated ankle on time, didn't have a setback throughout training camp, and passed the eye test in preseason action. The Najee Harris signing is a potential long-term thorn, but that felt like an indictment on Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary more than one on their lead back.
Skattebo was the RB9 on RB15 usage when he went down with a Week 8 injury last year, catching 3.0 receptions per game and handling all of the goal line work. This version of the Giants will be more run committed with HC John Harbaugh bringing in Greg Roman types on the staff. All coaching and player quotes have suggested an extremely run-heavy approach with a FB and multiple TEs on the field. That's great for Skattebo.
The Giants were also 23rd in scoring during that 8-week sample with Skattebo, and they're projected for the No. 16 team total (22.75 points) this week while hosting the Cowboys. It helps that the Giants are adding Malik Nabers and 1st-round RG Francis Mauigoa to the offense.
Meanwhile, Dallas added star DT Quinnen Williams, 1st-round S Caleb Downs, 1st-round EDGE Malachi Lawrence, and others since Skattebo faced them, but he did hang 12.9 half PPR points on them in his starting debut last Week 2.
He's a quality low-end RB2. I like the higher on 10.2 half PPR points in the betting markets.
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Williams played between 50% and 63% of the snaps over their final four games, including the playoffs. For comparison, Kyren's lowest snap rate in 2024 was 68%. In the final game of last year, they straight-up rotated drives:
![](\"/api/storage/objects/uploads/1de49a1c-93ea-44ec-bda0-d3bee6bade42.png\")
The Rams were so prolific last year (29.9 points per game) that Kyren still finished as half PPR's RB8 on RB12 usage, despite Corum's explosive sidekick role. The Rams project for 26.0 points in Australia against the Niners, which is the 4th-most of the week.
San Francisco has injuries to note. Nick Bosa hasn't practiced much, but said, \"I’m flying out there, I’m going to f--king play.\" Alrighty! He'll be joined by underrated star DT Osa Odighizuwa this year, with super star LB Fred Warner returning from injury. EDGE2 Mykel Williams (ACL) is out, though. With many of those players out last year, Williams posted 21.4 half PPR points on 84 total yards.
He projects for just 73.5 total yards and 11.6 half PPR points this time around as a clear RB2.
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London was the WR5 on WR5 usage from 2024 through Week 11 of 2025 when he went down with a PCL injury. Only Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase had a higher target share (29.6%) over that span, and the Falcons only added depth in the skill group this offseason in 3rd-round slot Zachariah Branch, Jahan Dotson, and Olamide Zaccheaus.
Unfortunately, the QB play hasn't really improved with Tua Tagovailoa playing so poorly this offseason that he was only awarded the starting nod mere days before the season after Michael Penix (ACL) wasn't going to make it in time. There is also a new coaching staff, and last year's OC Zac Robinson just about did everything right for London's box scores. We can only hope London gets as much slot work as he did last year.
The good news is the Steelers have turned into a bit of a pass funnel. Last year's unit was 3rd in pass yards allowed and 18th in rush yards allowed. CB1 Joey Porter is an above-average top option and slot CB Jalen Ramsey is still a tough out, even if he's a step slower. Atlanta only projects for 19.5 points this week.
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![](\"/api/storage/objects/uploads/2721ae4c-7608-49b4-9727-691e5d862bc3.png\")
This offseason has been all Washington, too. Beat reporters project him as the top target, and both Trevor Lawrence and HC Liam Coen have spoke glowingly about him. If Travis Hunter plays any WR, it'll come at the expense of Meyers and BTJ most likely, as Washington can play inside or out.
The Browns matchup is far easier without Myles Garrett, though it's still an average to good defense with players at all levels. Washington is likely to avoid CB1 Denzel Ward who will see more BTJ. CB2 Tyson Campbell is a boom-bust outside option and slot CB Myles Harden is unproven. The Jaguars are 9th in projected points (24.5).
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Since entering the league, Irving is the per-game RB16 on RB20 usage in half PPR. His rookie season was electric with an elite play caller and healthy OL, while last year's advanced numbers had Irving near the very bottom with the OL and himself injured. The Bucs OL could be the best in the NFL this year, and Irving has practiced for weeks coming off a shoulder surgery. There is certainly upside right out of the gate.
The Bengals will be better with star DT Dexter Lawrence and more experience at LB/S, but it's a great opening matchup regardless. Tampa Bay is 12th in projected points (23.5) in Cincy. Irving has 76.5 total yard and 11.2 half PPR points projection in the betting markets as a volatile RB2.
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Rice has also struggled against the Broncos great secondary in three career games; 6-38-0, 4-56-0, and 4-72-0. They led the NFL in man coverage last season, and Rice has been one of the worst receivers against man in the NFL. That's not an exaggeration.
The Chiefs only project for 23.0 points (14th). The betting markets still love Rice as a volume play, giving him 8.5 targets. He's better in full PPR.
","analysisLocked":false,"confidence":null,"isHaydenPlay":false,"isSleeper":false,"tag":null,"rankerSlug":"hayden","updatedAt":"2026-09-14T20:18:45.298Z","analysisUpdatedAt":"2026-09-09T15:25:47.729Z","adp":null,"yahooAdp":null,"overallRank":21,"week":1,"season":2026,"format":"PPR","latestTweet":null,"player":{"id":552,"slug":"rashee-rice","name":"Rashee Rice","team":"Kansas City Chiefs","position":"WR","imageUrl":"https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nfl/players/full/4428331.png","bio":null,"nflTeamAbbr":"KC","isSleeper":false,"pickemRecYards":999.5,"pickemRecTds":null,"pickemRushYards":null,"pickemRushTds":null,"pickemPassYards":null,"pickemPassTds":null}},{"id":723109,"rank":21,"opponent":"NE","gameTimeEt":"20:20","gameDate":"2026-09-09","isHome":true,"last4Rank":37,"last4ExpRank":40,"qbxRank":null,"matchupRank":22,"overUnder":44.5,"teamImpliedPoints":23.75,"teamImpliedRank":11,"oppImpliedPoints":20.75,"lastMeeting":{"week":22,"opponent":"NE","fantasyPts":15.400001,"yards":54},"practice":null,"projection":null,"verdict":null,"analysis":null,"analysisLocked":false,"confidence":null,"isHaydenPlay":false,"isSleeper":false,"tag":null,"rankerSlug":"hayden","updatedAt":"2026-09-14T20:18:45.298Z","analysisUpdatedAt":null,"adp":null,"yahooAdp":null,"overallRank":21,"week":1,"season":2026,"format":"PPR","latestTweet":null,"player":{"id":678,"slug":"aj-barner","name":"AJ Barner","team":"Seattle Seahawks","position":"TE","imageUrl":"https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nfl/players/full/4576297.png","bio":null,"nflTeamAbbr":"SEA","isSleeper":false,"pickemRecYards":null,"pickemRecTds":null,"pickemRushYards":null,"pickemRushTds":null,"pickemPassYards":null,"pickemPassTds":null}},{"id":723229,"rank":21,"opponent":"NE","gameTimeEt":"20:20","gameDate":"2026-09-09","isHome":true,"last4Rank":null,"last4ExpRank":null,"qbxRank":null,"matchupRank":27,"overUnder":44.5,"teamImpliedPoints":23.75,"teamImpliedRank":11,"oppImpliedPoints":20.75,"lastMeeting":null,"practice":null,"projection":null,"verdict":"Price has underrated early-season role but tough matchup","analysis":"With Zach Charbonnet (ACL) out, Price enters the season as the clear-cut starter. He's expected to be the base-down back with George Holani in a passing down role. Holani is not a real threat to the goal-line role in ways that were annoying with the Kenneth Walker and Charbonnet split. It's probably a better role for Price than what Walker had when he was the RB22 on RB27 usage while Charbonnet was healthy.
For reference, the Seahawks entire RB room averaged 21.7 expected half PPR points from Week 1 through the Super Bowl last year, while whopping teams en route to 29.2 points per game (2nd most). It'll be very hard to replicate that consistent game script and explosive ability without OC Klint Kubiak.
The Patriots are a difficult matchup to open with, but they did at least lose run-stopping NT Kyhris Tonga this offseason. Last year's New England defense was 4th-best against fantasy RBs when adjusting for schedule. The Seahawks are projected for 24.0 points (11th), while Price has a wide range of outcomes on a projected 9.8 half PPR points per the betting markets.
","analysisLocked":false,"confidence":null,"isHaydenPlay":false,"isSleeper":false,"tag":null,"rankerSlug":"hayden","updatedAt":"2026-09-14T20:18:45.298Z","analysisUpdatedAt":"2026-09-07T23:26:30.969Z","adp":null,"yahooAdp":null,"overallRank":21,"week":1,"season":2026,"format":"PPR","latestTweet":null,"player":{"id":581,"slug":"jadarian-price","name":"Jadarian Price","team":"Seattle Seahawks","position":"RB","imageUrl":"https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nfl/players/full/4685512.png","bio":null,"nflTeamAbbr":"SEA","isSleeper":false,"pickemRecYards":null,"pickemRecTds":null,"pickemRushYards":799.5,"pickemRushTds":5.5,"pickemPassYards":null,"pickemPassTds":null}},{"id":383475,"rank":21,"opponent":"LV","gameTimeEt":"16:25","gameDate":"2026-09-13","isHome":false,"last4Rank":38,"last4ExpRank":13,"qbxRank":null,"matchupRank":18,"overUnder":40.5,"teamImpliedPoints":18.75,"teamImpliedRank":28,"oppImpliedPoints":21.75,"lastMeeting":null,"practice":null,"projection":null,"verdict":null,"analysis":null,"analysisLocked":false,"confidence":null,"isHaydenPlay":false,"isSleeper":false,"tag":null,"rankerSlug":"hayden","updatedAt":"2026-09-14T20:18:45.298Z","analysisUpdatedAt":null,"adp":null,"yahooAdp":null,"overallRank":21,"week":1,"season":2026,"format":"PPR","latestTweet":null,"player":{"id":634,"slug":"malik-willis","name":"Malik Willis","team":"Miami Dolphins","position":"QB","imageUrl":"https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nfl/players/full/4242512.png","bio":null,"nflTeamAbbr":"MIA","isSleeper":false,"pickemRecYards":null,"pickemRecTds":null,"pickemRushYards":null,"pickemRushTds":null,"pickemPassYards":3099.5,"pickemPassTds":15.5}},{"id":723227,"rank":22,"opponent":"BUF","gameTimeEt":"13:00","gameDate":"2026-09-13","isHome":true,"last4Rank":67,"last4ExpRank":62,"qbxRank":null,"matchupRank":16,"overUnder":44.5,"teamImpliedPoints":21.5,"teamImpliedRank":22,"oppImpliedPoints":23,"lastMeeting":null,"practice":null,"projection":null,"verdict":"Monty catches new BUF defense at home behind suspect OL","analysis":"The Texans RB room averaged 16.0 half PPR points per game last year (28th), despite being 8th in carries. The OL was brutal, and they were also 27th in receptions. The hope is David Montgomery is much better than the recently-retired Nick Chubb and the new additions across the OL pay dividends. I'm skeptical.
Houston's OL still is an up-and-coming LT Aireontae Ersery, 1st-round rookie LG Keylan Rutledge, C Evan Brown ($2.4M), RG Ed Ingram ($12.5M/year), and RT Trent Brown ($4.9M). That's an unproven left side and a contender for the worst right side in the NFL. Montgomery is a heady rusher, but he's also not explosive enough to create that much on his own in his age-29 season. Expect Woody Marks to rotate in both rushing and passing phases, even if Monty is the favorite for goal-line carries early on.
The Texans are 14th in projected points this week while hosting the Bills, who are unleashing a new 3-4 defense with DC Jim Leonard. Buffalo was the 6th-worst defense against fantasy RBs last year after adjusting for schedule. They played with a two-high shell at the 3rd-highest rate last year, but more defenders in the box are expected this time around. It's a neutral to solid matchup on paper for Monty.
","analysisLocked":false,"confidence":null,"isHaydenPlay":false,"isSleeper":false,"tag":null,"rankerSlug":"hayden","updatedAt":"2026-09-14T20:18:45.298Z","analysisUpdatedAt":"2026-09-07T22:39:43.856Z","adp":null,"yahooAdp":null,"overallRank":22,"week":1,"season":2026,"format":"PPR","latestTweet":null,"player":{"id":584,"slug":"david-montgomery","name":"David Montgomery","team":"Houston Texans","position":"RB","imageUrl":"https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nfl/players/full/4035538.png","bio":null,"nflTeamAbbr":"HOU","isSleeper":false,"pickemRecYards":null,"pickemRecTds":null,"pickemRushYards":824.5,"pickemRushTds":6.5,"pickemPassYards":null,"pickemPassTds":null}},{"id":723038,"rank":22,"opponent":"CAR","gameTimeEt":"13:00","gameDate":"2026-09-13","isHome":false,"last4Rank":25,"last4ExpRank":34,"qbxRank":null,"matchupRank":12,"overUnder":47.5,"teamImpliedPoints":25.25,"teamImpliedRank":6,"oppImpliedPoints":22.25,"lastMeeting":null,"practice":null,"projection":null,"verdict":"Burden gets slightly easier CB matchup, Odunze playing hurt","analysis":"Rome Odunze (calf) was only limited in practice all week, but he is expected to play, possibly at less than 100%. That's slightly positive news for Burden, who had wild splits with Odunze last season. Without Odunze on the field, Burden's yards per route jumped to an elite 3.7, but with Odunze, they plummeted to a concerning 1.1. The truth lies between the two, and Burden should be a near full-time player without D.J. Moore. Expect a bunch of 2-TE sets given their personnel.
![](\"/api/storage/objects/uploads/4d8c111f-46dd-4707-a76e-9671fb30511a.png\")
The matchup is also easiest for Burden this week. The Panthers quietly have strong outside CBs in Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson, while their slot CB Chau Smith-Wade is the easiest target. Now, Burden will see plenty of the top-two CBs himself, so this is more of a neutral matchup in general. The Bears are 7th in projected points at 25.25. Burden's 9.4 half PPR points in the betting markets are a hair above Odunze's 7.2. My Week 1 rankings agree, even though I had Odunze ahead in my season-long rankings.
","analysisLocked":false,"confidence":null,"isHaydenPlay":false,"isSleeper":false,"tag":null,"rankerSlug":"hayden","updatedAt":"2026-09-14T20:18:45.298Z","analysisUpdatedAt":"2026-09-13T14:11:24.578Z","adp":null,"yahooAdp":null,"overallRank":22,"week":1,"season":2026,"format":"PPR","latestTweet":null,"player":{"id":587,"slug":"luther-burden","name":"Luther Burden","team":"Chicago Bears","position":"WR","imageUrl":"https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nfl/players/full/4685278.png","bio":null,"nflTeamAbbr":"CHI","isSleeper":false,"pickemRecYards":824.5,"pickemRecTds":null,"pickemRushYards":null,"pickemRushTds":null,"pickemPassYards":null,"pickemPassTds":null}},{"id":723107,"rank":22,"opponent":"SEA","gameTimeEt":"20:20","gameDate":"2026-09-09","isHome":false,"last4Rank":32,"last4ExpRank":33,"qbxRank":null,"matchupRank":20,"overUnder":44.5,"teamImpliedPoints":20.75,"teamImpliedRank":24,"oppImpliedPoints":23.75,"lastMeeting":{"week":22,"opponent":"SEA","fantasyPts":6.1,"yards":31},"practice":null,"projection":null,"verdict":null,"analysis":null,"analysisLocked":false,"confidence":null,"isHaydenPlay":false,"isSleeper":false,"tag":null,"rankerSlug":"hayden","updatedAt":"2026-09-14T20:18:45.298Z","analysisUpdatedAt":null,"adp":null,"yahooAdp":null,"overallRank":22,"week":1,"season":2026,"format":"PPR","latestTweet":null,"player":{"id":689,"slug":"hunter-henry","name":"Hunter Henry","team":"New England Patriots","position":"TE","imageUrl":"https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nfl/players/full/3046439.png","bio":null,"nflTeamAbbr":"NE","isSleeper":false,"pickemRecYards":null,"pickemRecTds":null,"pickemRushYards":null,"pickemRushTds":null,"pickemPassYards":null,"pickemPassTds":null}},{"id":383499,"rank":22,"opponent":"NE","gameTimeEt":"20:20","gameDate":"2026-09-09","isHome":true,"last4Rank":30,"last4ExpRank":16,"qbxRank":null,"matchupRank":30,"overUnder":44.5,"teamImpliedPoints":23.75,"teamImpliedRank":11,"oppImpliedPoints":20.75,"lastMeeting":{"week":22,"opponent":"NE","fantasyPts":12.58,"yards":202},"practice":null,"projection":null,"verdict":null,"analysis":null,"analysisLocked":false,"confidence":null,"isHaydenPlay":false,"isSleeper":false,"tag":null,"rankerSlug":"hayden","updatedAt":"2026-09-14T20:18:45.298Z","analysisUpdatedAt":null,"adp":null,"yahooAdp":null,"overallRank":22,"week":1,"season":2026,"format":"PPR","latestTweet":null,"player":{"id":666,"slug":"sam-darnold","name":"Sam Darnold","team":"Seattle Seahawks","position":"QB","imageUrl":"https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nfl/players/full/3912547.png","bio":null,"nflTeamAbbr":"SEA","isSleeper":false,"pickemRecYards":null,"pickemRecTds":null,"pickemRushYards":null,"pickemRushTds":null,"pickemPassYards":3699.5,"pickemPassTds":23.5}},{"id":723031,"rank":23,"opponent":"SF","gameTimeEt":"20:35","gameDate":"2026-09-10","isHome":true,"last4Rank":28,"last4ExpRank":9,"qbxRank":null,"matchupRank":18,"overUnder":47.5,"teamImpliedPoints":25.5,"teamImpliedRank":5,"oppImpliedPoints":22,"lastMeeting":{"week":10,"opponent":"SF","fantasyPts":19.7,"yards":77},"practice":null,"projection":null,"verdict":"Adams is in unique goal line and downfield role","analysis":"Adams had the most ridiculous red zone WR season of 2025. He led with 0.76 touchdowns per game inside the 20-yard line on a 27% target share. Only Amon-Ra St. Brown and Drake London came close to matching. Outside of the red zone, Adams was a deep threat on an 18% target share, 0% screen share, and 15.6 average depth of target. It's a volatile role week over week, especially if the Rams are scoring ~1 fewer TD per game this season.
The Rams project for 26.0 points (4th) this week in Australia, and the 49ers defense is limping around with Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and other returning from injury. They just lost a key DT and still don't have 2025 1st-round DE Mykel Williams. It's a pretty solid matchup in general. The 49ers will be better than 4th-worst against fantasy WRs like they were in 2025, but it's still a matchup to chase.
Adams has a solid 9.3 half PPR point projection and 51.5 receiving yards in the betting markets as a startable WR3. That's discounting him a ton from his top-10 fantasy WR season last year.
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![](\"/api/storage/objects/uploads/d19ddcf7-92f5-415b-96f1-a8c4030d7276.png\")
Jonathan Brooks has opposite traits to Dowdle as a better receiver and less proven short-yardage option. Brooks is also dealing with soreness, stemming from a twice-torn ACL. He's been working on the side with trainers. Meanwhile, Hubbard is fully healthy after an early-camp hamstring injury.
Hubbard is a clear favorite for the starting base-offense role in Week 1. This role led to an RB12 finish in half PPR points per game (on RB7 usage), back in 2024 for what it's worth. Project him for 15+ touches and the goal-line role initially. The Panthers are projected for the 21st-most points against the Bears this week. Chicago is one of the worst defenses on paper this year. This is probably the best week of the year for Hubbard. He's a FLEX starter.
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![](\"/api/storage/objects/uploads/005d4ad4-e5b7-45bf-84b5-b7fc4be0e0f1.png\")
Warren should have FLEX value in a similar role to last year when he finished as the RB20 per game on RB21 usage. If he can keep some of the goal line role while absorbing more receptions, then he's going to beat ADP with ease. We'll learn more about the rotation after Week 1, but I'd be surprised if Warren isn't the starter.
The matchup is awesome. The Steelers are 13th in projected points while hosting the Falcons. They won't have either 2025 1st-round edge this week, and the Falcons were league average against fantasy RBs last year with them. Assume the Falcons have a bottom-3 DL right now and mediocre off-ball LBs.
Warren projects for 62.5 total yards and 9.6 half PPR points by the betting markets. Those are worse than he had last year for some reason. I disagree!
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But will that continue? The Lions secondary is in such bad shape right now that everyone could get home. There's also the loss of David Montgomery, who allowed the Lions to be more balanced. I could see more dropbacks out of Detroit, and Jared Goff has already finished 2nd in passing yards in 3-straight seasons to date.
The Saints' No. 1 neutral pace offense comes to Detroit, and there should be as many points and plays as any game this week. The Lions are narrowly 2nd in projected points. Saints DC Brandon Staley has my respect, and his entire bit is preventing the explosive play with more deep safeties. It'll be more difficult for Jamo to get home against that style, but let's not nitpick here. He'll face off with fellow Tide, CB1 Kool-Aid McKinstry, in isolated matchups.
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This season will be his best yet. The Packers only have three WRs worth getting on the field, so he'll be a full-time player for the first time. Without Josh Jacobs, they'll likely pass more and play with more pace, something they were talking about this offseason even before Jacobs went on the Exempt List. That's great news for the viability of all Packers' skill players.
This matchup was difficult last season with better defenders, but the Vikings defense looks more hollowed out this season. Their starting CB room is underwhelming, and the Packers should be more equipped for the unusual DC Brian Flores defense, especially with an entire offseason to prepare. I'm rounding up on Green Bay in a potential shootout without Micah Parsons.
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If there's a role that's most solidified heading into the year, it's Rodriguez's goal line role as the bigger, more disciplined runner. If Tuten isn't used inside the 5-yard line much, then he'll need to catch more passes than Travis Etienne had last year (2.3 per game) to pay off as a low-end RB2. He has the talent to do it as long as he isn't running the wrong way (which happened too often last year). There is some \"trap back\" concern here if he didn't develop his game in his first normal offseason, but Allen missing time helps on the margins for now.
The matchup also helps. The Jaguars are 9th in projected points (24.5) as 8.5-point home favorites against the Browns, without Myles Garrett of course. Cleveland had the 11th-best defense against fantasy RBs when adjusting for schedule last year and will likely remain middle of the back this year with all of their moves.
It's possible both Tuten and Rodriguez carve out enough to be fantasy starters in good matchups like this one. There was 20.2 expected half PPR points per game available to Jacksonville RBs last year. Tuten is projected for 9.2 by the betting markets.
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Judkins also faced the highest rate of 8+ defender boxes (45%) per NextGenStats last year in addition to having poor OL and QB play. He was awesome on tape, yet still was the RB23 on RB17 in half PPR last year because of the horrid environment. He at least handled 31-of-35 inside the 5-yard line carries when healthy, but he has to score TDs to be a factor. He only averaged 1.9 receptions per game (RB43).
Judkins projects for 9.6 half PPR points and 73.5 total yards according to the betting markets right now.
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The matchup is very good for him. The Bucs are slight favorite against the Bengals, yet still project for 23.5 points (13th). Cincy was great against fantasy WRs last year because CB1 DJ Turner was awesome and their LB/S group was pathetic against TEs and RBs. That will even out this year, and the Bengals' slot CB is Jalen Davis. That's a great matchup individually.
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The matchups is a fairly good one. The Falcons won't have either of their 2025 1st-round edge rushers, and they don't have any depth along the DL. They do have CB1 A.J. Terrell and S Jessie Bates to match up with Metcalf, but Rodgers should have time to operate. The Falcons were 10th worst against fantasy WRs last year. It's possible the Steelers aren't projected for 23.0 points often this year, like they are in Week 1.
","analysisLocked":false,"confidence":null,"isHaydenPlay":false,"isSleeper":false,"tag":null,"rankerSlug":"hayden","updatedAt":"2026-09-14T20:18:45.298Z","analysisUpdatedAt":"2026-09-09T22:24:35.499Z","adp":null,"yahooAdp":null,"overallRank":27,"week":1,"season":2026,"format":"PPR","latestTweet":null,"player":{"id":612,"slug":"dk-metcalf","name":"DK Metcalf","team":"Pittsburgh Steelers","position":"WR","imageUrl":"https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nfl/players/full/4047650.png","bio":null,"nflTeamAbbr":"PIT","isSleeper":false,"pickemRecYards":874.5,"pickemRecTds":null,"pickemRushYards":null,"pickemRushTds":null,"pickemPassYards":null,"pickemPassTds":null}},{"id":723234,"rank":27,"opponent":"MIN","gameTimeEt":"16:25","gameDate":"2026-09-13","isHome":false,"last4Rank":115,"last4ExpRank":98,"qbxRank":null,"matchupRank":23,"overUnder":46.5,"teamImpliedPoints":22.5,"teamImpliedRank":15,"oppImpliedPoints":24,"lastMeeting":null,"practice":null,"projection":null,"verdict":"Lloyd has upside RB3 projection against unique MIN DEF","analysis":"With Josh Jacobs on the Commissioner's Exempt List for probably the next 4-10 weeks, it's officially time to see if Lloyd can play after years of injuries has prevented him from playing time as a former 3rd-round selection.
He'll be joined by reliable pass-protector Chris Brooks and unreliable outside-zone specialist Kaleb Johnson, who was acquired just last week. I'd project a three-back rotation in September with Lloyd opening as the starter. I just doubt it's anything close to the \"Jacobs role\" that made him the RB9 in half PPR since 2024.
The risk is even more real against the Vikings' unique, No. 1 blitz-heavy (51%) defense that crowds the line of scrimmage with pre-snap threats. It's the type of matchup that could make Brooks' reliability more relied upon. Last year, the Vikings' defense allowed the fewest receiving yards and receiving TDs to RB rooms when adjusting for schedule because RBs are kept in to block. They did allow the most carries per game to RB rooms when adjusting for schedule, though some of that was due to game script given their awful QB play. Long story short, it's a bad matchup for the Packers' RBs.
Green Bay is 17th in projected points (22.5), and Lloyd's total yardage projection sits at 64.5. He's a boom-bust FLEX play who can't afford Johnson mixing in on early downs.
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The Titans are only projected for 20.5 points despite opening with the Jets' in-development defense coming to town. New York allowed the most fantasy points to RBs last year, but they at least added veteran LB Demario Davis, 1st-round EDGE David Bailey, veteran SS Minkah Fitzpatrick and others this offseason to rework the Aaron Glenn defense. It's still one of the worst in the league.
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The matchup will be a challenge, of course. Aaron Donald didn't travel to Australia, but Myles Garrett, CB1 Trent McDuffie, CB2 Jaylen Watson, and the rest of this potentially elite defense did. Last year, the Rams had lowlights at CB, but they are loaded now with fantastic coaches on top.
The 49ers are projected for 22.5 points, an unusually low number for them. The betting markets are a bit spooked on Evans' volume, only projecting him for 5.5 targets. That feels a hair low to me. He's a boom-bust WR3 as we wait to see if The Strib Club opens earlier than expected.
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The other unfortunate factor is the score board. The Chargers are projected to win by 9.5 points, and the Cardinals are only projected for 19.0 points. Love scoring a touchdown when Allgeier could be viewed as a short-yardage hammer early on could be difficult, especially with Trey McBride, Michael Wilson, and Marvin Harrison Jr. are also around.
If there's any silver lining, Love could be a PPR scam in the second half if Arizona is trailing and Love is feeling good. The betting markets have Love at 2.5 receptions, which feels low if I'm being honest. He's projected for 8.3 half PPR points to Allegeir's 6.2 per the betting markets,
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The Chargers have the highest team total of Week 1 (28.5 points) while hosting the Cardinals mediocre defense. He'll face off with CB1 Will Johnson who is once again dealing with an injury. He's not someone to avoid in fantasy. Johnston only has a 5.5-target projection by the betting markets, so we're firmly in the boom-bust tier now. I like my boom-bust WRs on teams projected for 3-4 TDs.
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The issue this week is the Eagles fantastic defense. Their DL will give the Commanders fits, and McLaurin will go toe-to-toe with stud CB1 Quinyon Mitchell. In 5 games against the Eagles in the past two seasons, McLaurin has averaged 4.4 targets, 3.2 receptions, and 46 yards.
![](\"/api/storage/objects/uploads/6c1aa4f0-7d96-4a3e-b27f-823aa74389fa.png\")
McLaurin will be a boom-bust asset this year, and this would be a week to roll with a \"bust\" outlook. The Commanders are 28th in projected points at just 19.5.
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It's a great week for both backs, but especially Dowdle. The Steelers are 15th in projected points (23.0) as 3.5-point home favorites. Atlanta was 9th in rushing yards allowed per game last year, and their front-seven looks worse this season. It should be a run-funnel defense, and Dowdle could be the 4th-quarter hammer if the game goes as planned.
Dowdle is a FLEX start with a 9.3 half PPR and 66.5 total yardage projection by the betting markets.
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The matchup is as tough as it gets. The Texans were 4th best against fantasy WRs last year, and CB1 Derek Stingley will be all over Moore this week. Buffalo's 23.0-point team total could be the lowest of the year, and even then, Moore is projected for 46.5 yards by the betting markets. He's more of a WR3 candidate than FLEX starter.
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The matchup leans negative, too. Kansas City was 8th best against fantasy RBs last year adjusting for schedule. They added NT Khyris Tonga and late 1st-round DT Peter Woods this offseason to give them more interior depth than they've had in years. It's possible the Chiefs play a more clock-draining style of play with Kenneth Walker, too.
Denver has a below-average 20.25 team total (26th) on the road on Monday Night Football where the stadium will be rocking for Mahomes' return. It's hard to get excited for Dobbins' 56.5 total yards projection from the betting markets. He's half PPR flex-able.
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The matchup is a great one. The Packers are without Micah Parsons, and they appear to be starting 3rd-round rookie Chris McClellan at NT. Small sample size alert, but the Packers allowed 139 rushing yards per game (2nd worst) in the 5 contests without Parsons to close last year.
The Vikings are 10th in projected points, and Jones has a 48.5 total yards projection in the betting markets. He's better in full PPR after averaging 2.3 receptions per game (RB24) last year. Mason is expected to be the primary goal-line option.
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![](\"/api/storage/objects/uploads/943a6ecc-c823-441c-9a0d-378bd3ae2bf7.png\")
BTJ's role will be the hardest, and he'll draw the most difficult assignments, like this week's one with CB1 Denzel Ward. The rest of the secondary isn't quite as strong, so more P-Wash wouldn't be a surprise. Thomas will need a big play to pay off, and it might have to come early on with the Browns looking uncompetitive against a stout Jaguars DEF.
They are 8.5-point favorites with the No. 9 team total (24.5 points). Thomas' betting market projection is a lowly 37.5 yards.
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The game script is on Gainwell's side. The Bucs are 3.5-point dogs in Cincinnati. That easily could be a shootout. They return their horrific LB duo, though they at least surround them with star DT Dexter Lawrence, EDGE Boye Mafe, DT Jonathan Allen, and S Bryan Cook. The Bengals shouldn't be 2nd-worst against fantasy RBs this year with those additions, but they were lit up by receiving backs, including Gainwell:
![](\"/api/storage/objects/uploads/c42eeba0-7945-480d-8a88-62bc507cafa0.png\")
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Last year, Odunze only mustered up a WR36 per-game sophomore season on WR18 usage and WR22 targets per game (7.1). That level of usage should maintain with D.J. Moore's trade leaving a pathway to nearly full-time snaps. He's been 6th-highest in average depth of target, yet 73rd in catchable ball rate out of 79 WR qualifiers since 2024. All of this needs to even out for Odunze to pay off as an upside WR3. Caleb Williams and Odunze taking another leap in their second year with HC Ben Johnson seemed worth the risk to me all offseason, as Odunze was my most-drafted WR.
The Bears project for 25.25 points (7th) in Carolina. They have an improved defense with CB1 Jaycee Horn likely on Odunze for a bulk of the game. Even CB2 Mike Jackson had quality moments last season. This isn't the cupcake matchup it may appear to be. The Panthers were middle of the pack against fantasy WRs last season despite not having a quality front seven. They're closer to average now.
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The Cardinals only have a 19.0-point team total while playing in LA against the Chargers' fringe top-10 defense. They were awesome last year, but they lost elite DC Jesse Minter. Harrison will likely have an entire second half to be in catch up mode as 9.5-point dogs. They've been in negative script a lot in his first two seasons and results have been mixed. Harrison will at least avoid star SCB Derwin James on most snaps. CB1 Tarheeb Still is an underrated player.
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The Jaguars signed him to a 2-year, $10M contract this offseason to be a real part of the rotation. With pass protector LeQuint Allen banged up, Rodriguez is in line for even more snaps in Week 1, as Bhayshul Tuten isn't one to rely on in those situations. Both can get home after this offense averaged 20.2 expected half PPR points per game to their RBs last year. I'm not expecting a Travis Etienne lead back this time around.
Rodriguez has familiarity with HC Liam Coen, as he totaled 1,440 yards in a season together at Kentucky. He profiles as the \"close out\" and goal line back given his size and short-yardage efficiency. While not as fast as Tuten, C-Rod does offer tackle-breaking ability as a bowling ball type.
With Jacksonville projected for 24.5 points (9th) as 8.5-point home favorites, it's looking like a week to start Rodriguez as a FLEX. It's positive game script for him, and the Browns don't have Myles Garrett this time around. Give me the higher on 38.5 total yards from the betting markets.
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The Vikings' unique defense causes a lot of problems to inexperienced teams, but the Packers should be used to things. Individually, the Vikings starting CBs aren't very good. They do play in two-high shells at the highest rate in the NFL, so despite blitzing, it's difficult to hit explosives. Golden may need to show more underneath and intermediate to pay off here. I believe he can do it. The Packers have a 22.5-point team total (17th), and Golden projects for 42.5 yards. It's possible Tucker Kraft is on a snap count here.
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The matchup is a great one. The 49ers are limping to Week 1, rushing EDGE Nick Bosa back from injury. 2025 1st-round EDGE Mykel Williams and DT Alfred Collins are out, and most of their depth pieces on the DL are pass-first players. The Rams easily could decide to run it for a chunk of the game. They were the highest success rate team on RB carries of the decade just last year.
Corum is a desperation FLEX play, but this does feel like a week where there's a chance it pays off. The Rams are 4th in projected points at 26.0. That is far off from their average 32.6 points per game from Week 9 on, however.
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Addison is one of my favorite dart throw WR3 starts with the Vikings projected for 24.0 points (10th) at home.
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Monangai (knee) was recently injured and missed the last half of training camp, but he was completely left off the practice report and shouldn't have limitations here.
The matchup is a solid one. The Panthers were 8th-worst against fantasy RBs last year, though their depth chart looks improved with star DT Derrick Brown healthy and with EDGE Jaelan Phillips and LB Devin Lloyd added this offseason. It's probably more neutral than anything. Chicago has a 24.75-point team total (8th) as 3.0-point road favorites.
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