[{"id":1307,"rank":1,"opponent":null,"gameTimeEt":null,"gameDate":null,"isHome":null,"last4Rank":null,"last4ExpRank":null,"matchupRank":null,"overUnder":null,"teamImpliedPoints":null,"oppImpliedPoints":null,"projection":299.9,"verdict":"1.01 candidate in half PPR with David Montgomery gone","analysis":"

Gibbs is my 1.01 in half PPR after finishing 4th overall last year in fantasy points over replacement per game, despite splitting time with David Montgomery (now on the Texans). Gibbs has averaged 25.1 half PPR points in 8 games that Montgomery has missed or played in under 25% snaps, and he should set career highs in volume.

Isiah Pacheco only signed for $1.8M this offseason on a 1-year deal, a sign that his role will be a lot smaller than Montgomery's.

At the same time, there are other changes to the Lions offense. They have a new OC in Drew Petzig, who was doing some cool things with the Cardinals specifically in the run game. They also re-tooled their OL with mauling veteran C Cade Mays and experienced 1st-round RT Blake Miller. The Lions OL was average to even below average last year, but they should get back to moving bodies in 2026.

","analysisLocked":false,"confidence":null,"isHaydenPlay":false,"isSleeper":false,"tag":null,"rankerSlug":"hayden","updatedAt":"2026-08-19T03:48:54.602Z","analysisUpdatedAt":"2026-07-20T15:52:44.010Z","adp":1.1,"yahooAdp":1,"overallRank":1,"week":0,"season":2026,"format":"Half-PPR","latestTweet":null,"player":{"id":529,"slug":"jahmyr-gibbs","name":"Jahmyr Gibbs","team":"Detroit Lions","position":"RB","imageUrl":"https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nfl/players/full/4429795.png","bio":null,"nflTeamAbbr":"DET","isSleeper":false,"pickemRecYards":524.5,"pickemRecTds":3.5,"pickemRushYards":1229.5,"pickemRushTds":11.5,"pickemPassYards":null,"pickemPassTds":null}},{"id":1579,"rank":2,"opponent":null,"gameTimeEt":null,"gameDate":null,"isHome":null,"last4Rank":null,"last4ExpRank":null,"matchupRank":null,"overUnder":null,"teamImpliedPoints":null,"oppImpliedPoints":null,"projection":294.9,"verdict":"Bijan can be in RB1 overall mix without vulture Tyler Allgeier","analysis":"

Tyler Allgeier has never missed a game since Bijan Robinson was drafted, so we don't have the obvious on/off splits that we have with Jahmyr Gibbs sans David Montgomery. But I'd imagine Bijan's numbers will be outrageous without Allgeier.

Bijan was the RB3 on RB8 usage last year with Allgeier, who handled 10 inside the 5-yard line carries to Bijan's 11. I will vomit if Bijan is the RB19 in goal-line carry share again.

As a receiver, there's nothing really to say. He's amongst the best in the NFL and was the RB2 in receptions per game (4.6). That shouldn't change much, even if Zachariah Branch will be involved as a manufactured touch player now.

What is changing is the play caller. Enter Kevin Stefanski from the Browns, who would adapt his offense to his personnel each season. It's unclear if this offense will be more geared towards Tua Tagovailoa's quick, precision style or towards Michael Penix's downfield shot play style. Either way, the ball is going to Bijan, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts all game long. We saw late last year that without Drake London, Bijan can get an outrageous volume, and that's the benefit of playing in an offense without depth.

I'm a bit concerned about this OL paired with this QB tandem, but that shouldn't hurt Bijan's fantasy output much. He's locked into the top-5 in all non-superflex formats.

Bijan's market projections are nearly identical to Gibbs; 1224 rushing yards, 599 receiving yards, and 9.5 rushing TDs.

","analysisLocked":false,"confidence":null,"isHaydenPlay":false,"isSleeper":false,"tag":null,"rankerSlug":"hayden","updatedAt":"2026-08-19T03:48:54.602Z","analysisUpdatedAt":"2026-07-14T04:05:45.056Z","adp":2.1,"yahooAdp":2,"overallRank":2,"week":0,"season":2026,"format":"Half-PPR","latestTweet":null,"player":{"id":530,"slug":"bijan-robinson","name":"Bijan Robinson","team":"Atlanta Falcons","position":"RB","imageUrl":"https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nfl/players/full/4430807.png","bio":null,"nflTeamAbbr":"ATL","isSleeper":false,"pickemRecYards":599.5,"pickemRecTds":3.5,"pickemRushYards":1199.5,"pickemRushTds":9.5,"pickemPassYards":null,"pickemPassTds":null}},{"id":1580,"rank":3,"opponent":null,"gameTimeEt":null,"gameDate":null,"isHome":null,"last4Rank":null,"last4ExpRank":null,"matchupRank":null,"overUnder":null,"teamImpliedPoints":null,"oppImpliedPoints":null,"projection":256.6,"verdict":"The 1.01 in full PPR with Burrow healthy this offseason","analysis":"

Chase is the WR1 on WR1 expected points in games with Joe Burrow healthy over the past 3 seasons, averaging 21.5 PPR points per game.

The only receivers close to matching him over that span are Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, and Malik Nabers. Two of them are downgraded by new competition (Lamb with George Pickens) or injury (Nabers).

Burrow, Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown are healthy right now, and the defense has at least added some pieces this offseason. It's not a surprise to see the Bengals 4th in projected points in the betting markets.

Chase has a case as the 1.01 in full PPR, too. The depth of WR has decreased because more teams are using TEs and running more, increasing the value of the truly elite WR1s. Pairing Chase with 3 RBs by the Round 6/7 turn is a great way to start drafts in 2026.

","analysisLocked":false,"confidence":null,"isHaydenPlay":false,"isSleeper":false,"tag":null,"rankerSlug":"hayden","updatedAt":"2026-08-19T03:48:54.602Z","analysisUpdatedAt":"2026-07-20T15:53:13.010Z","adp":3,"yahooAdp":3,"overallRank":3,"week":0,"season":2026,"format":"Half-PPR","latestTweet":null,"player":{"id":531,"slug":"jamarr-chase","name":"Ja'Marr Chase","team":"Cincinnati Bengals","position":"WR","imageUrl":"https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nfl/players/full/4362628.png","bio":null,"nflTeamAbbr":"CIN","isSleeper":false,"pickemRecYards":1324.5,"pickemRecTds":10.5,"pickemRushYards":11.5,"pickemRushTds":null,"pickemPassYards":null,"pickemPassTds":null}},{"id":1581,"rank":4,"opponent":null,"gameTimeEt":null,"gameDate":null,"isHome":null,"last4Rank":null,"last4ExpRank":null,"matchupRank":null,"overUnder":null,"teamImpliedPoints":null,"oppImpliedPoints":null,"projection":259,"verdict":"Wannabe streamer is NFL's career YPG leader as side hustle","analysis":"

Nacua's 23.8 PPR points per game were 3.4 more than the WR2 overall (Jaxon Smith-Njigba) last season. Over the past two seasons, only Ja'Marr Chase is in his neighborhood. And over his entire career, Nacua has the most receiving yards per game (95.3) in NFL history. HISTORY.

The Rams offense projects for the most points in the NFL per the betting markets, and the competition for targets around him is the same. Just 33-year-old Davante Adams and a bunch of TEs.

Nacua's upside and floor are already obvious, but there is one spot that gives him even more of a ceiling: the red zone. Adams had a 27% target share in the red zone compared to Nacua's 17%. Adams scored 13 RZ TDs to Nacua's 6. That could change at any point, especially if Adams' hammy acts up.

Outside of the red zone, Nacua caught 8.1 receptions per game (LMAO) on a 33% target share. It's a good thing if Sean McVay wants to mix in 3-TE sets, as it's just easier for Nacua to stand out and earn a target.

As long as his off-field decisions don't catch up to him on the field, Nacua is a no-brainer top-4 pick in all formats. In full PPR, Nacua is my 1.03. In half PPR, Nacua is my 1.04 and I'm considering a move up to 1.02 given the lack of depth at WR in the middle rounds.

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Taylor is the RB3 on RB3 overall usage over the past 3 seasons since coach Shane Steichen arrived. He's had low-end RB1 and elite RB1 moments depending on how smooth the QB play has been.

Taylor was the RB19 on RB3 usage without Daniel Jones last year, but he was the RB1 overall (22.4 half PPR points) on RB2 usage with him through 13 weeks. If we exclude those 5 wobbly games with Jones playing on a broken leg, then Taylor jumps to 25.9 half PPR points per game. So what sample is best to use with Jones coming off a torn right achilles in 2026?

Taylor is unlikely to repeat last year, as the Colts were 7th in points per game and 8th in EPA per play. They're currently project to be the No. 15 scoring offense per the betting markets. That's okay. Taylor will be top-5 in usage on an average offense, while in the prime of his career at 27 years old. An injured Jones is still tiers above 2025 Philip Rivers, and the Colts may need Taylor even more without Michael Pittman.

Taylor can't be projected in the Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson tier because he was only the RB15 in receptions per game (2.7), but Taylor can get as hot as them if the Colts can catch fire like they did in 2025. He is appropriately priced as a mid 1st-round pick ahead of the James Cook and Ashton Jeanty tier of RBs.

Taylor projects for 1249.5 rushing yards and 11.5 rushing touchdowns in the markets, while Cook (1199-10.5) and Jeanty (1030-10.5) sit a slight tier below.

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McCaffrey is coming off 450 touches, including the postseason. That's rare. It's why he easily finished as the RB1 overall in expected half PPR points (22.6 per game) and the RB1 overall in actual fantasy points (21.4).

If he stays healthy, McCaffrey is obviously an elite RB1. The two primary questions are: 1) what are the odds he stays healthy, and 2) what level of an elite workload will he have?

Historically, RBs coming off 400+ touches miss time and are less efficient. That's even more true in this age-29 range. It's far more likely McCaffrey does not repeat last year than that he does. That's okay!

Kyle Shanahan has said it was incredible that CMC was able to play every week on that workload, but it's unsustainable. He later said, \"I want him to have more juice. I want him to be fresher. He doesn't have to take that beating when it's unnecessary. I'm hoping we can have some other guys step up more this year so you don't feel like you need him on the field every play.\"

The lack of juice was evident in the analytics:

Shanahan noted that the receivers being better this year will allow that to happen. The 49ers also added a rookie RB to have some new depth behind CMC. I believe Shanny will use CMC less on a per-game basis. That was 23.7 touches per game last year, so I'd think 19-20 is a more appropriate range. Once again, that's okay!

13 games of McCaffrey handling 19 touches per game is very much worth a 1st-round pick in fantasy considering his goal-line and receiving work. Anything worse than that is impossible to project, and anything better than that is how you win your fantasy league.

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The Sun God has 3-straight seasons with both double digit TDs and 115+ receptions. Unreal, but there isn't a lot to say about what to expect. I'll leave you with one split:

When David Montgomery either missed the game or finished with 5 carries (10 game sample), Amon-Ra St. Brown has averaged 20.9 PPR points and 21.8 expected points. Both are WR1 overall. In those games, he's averaged 8.4 receptions, 102.5 yards, and 0.60 touchdowns. His average depth of target drops, as he becomes an extension of the run game.

Well, Monty is gone. Obviously Jahmyr Gibbs will take over a lot of his production, but the Lions could be slightly more pass heavy in 2026, especially with the rest of the division ranking 8th, 10th, and 20th in projected points. Detroit is 3rd themselves.

St. Brown has a 1199.5 receiving-yard and 8.5 receiving-touchdown projection in the live markets. That would be his worst season since 2022.

","analysisLocked":false,"confidence":null,"isHaydenPlay":false,"isSleeper":false,"tag":null,"rankerSlug":"hayden","updatedAt":"2026-08-19T03:48:54.602Z","analysisUpdatedAt":"2026-07-14T04:06:45.498Z","adp":7,"yahooAdp":8,"overallRank":7,"week":0,"season":2026,"format":"Half-PPR","latestTweet":null,"player":{"id":536,"slug":"amon-ra-st-brown","name":"Amon-Ra St. Brown","team":"Detroit Lions","position":"WR","imageUrl":"https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nfl/players/full/4374302.png","bio":null,"nflTeamAbbr":"DET","isSleeper":false,"pickemRecYards":1199.5,"pickemRecTds":8.5,"pickemRushYards":12.5,"pickemRushTds":null,"pickemPassYards":null,"pickemPassTds":null}},{"id":1582,"rank":8,"opponent":null,"gameTimeEt":null,"gameDate":null,"isHome":null,"last4Rank":null,"last4ExpRank":null,"matchupRank":null,"overUnder":null,"teamImpliedPoints":null,"oppImpliedPoints":null,"projection":235.1,"verdict":"JSN can regress some and still be a top-5 fantasy WR","analysis":"

JSN arrived in a huge way without DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in his way. He was the WR2 on WR7 usage, averaging 99.6 receiving yards per game including the postseason. His 35% target share dwarfed the next closest, Amon-Ra St. Brown (32%). And he didn't do it as a screen merchant either. Only 8% of his targets were screens.

Smith-Njigba's explosion was entirely tied to being a better downfield threat. His average depth of target as a rookie was 6.1 yards downfield, then 8.6 as a sophomore, and then finally last year jumped to 11.1. He had 20 yards per game more than he did in 2023-24 on his targets 15+ yards downfield.

Some credit belongs to Sam Darnold for being 2nd in completion percentage over expected (+10.0%) on these deep targets, and Darnold is back with the same OL.

Other credit belongs to OC Klint Kubiak, who called an offense 10th in play action rate and played at the 3rd-fastest pace in neutral situations. The hard part with JSN's 2026 projection is baking in the new play-caller after Kubiak took the Raiders head coaching gig.

Enter new OC Brian Fleury. He might be the least talked about new play-caller this year because he hasn't been a play-caller before. Nobody knows. Fleury comes from the Shanahan tree, and he's coached with Kyle Shanahan himself on the Browns in 2014 and then for the past 7 seasons with the 49ers. He didn't directly know coach Mike MacDonald to my knowledge, yet got the job.

Former QB Brock Huard, who has connections to the team, said this about Fleury: \"I know he crushed the whiteboard. I can say that confidently ... I know in the interview process it was pretty overwhelming to everybody in the room that his years under Kyle, and his understanding of situational ball, and the level and the depth and the detail was pretty overwhelming, because there were strong in-house candidates, a number of them.\"

That makes me feel a lot better about the Seahawks offense in 2026, even if JSN's yards per target (10.5) and completion percentage over expected (+10.2) are bound to regress. Smith-Njigba still projects as a top-5 fantasy WR with regression baked in.

","analysisLocked":false,"confidence":null,"isHaydenPlay":false,"isSleeper":false,"tag":null,"rankerSlug":"hayden","updatedAt":"2026-08-19T03:48:54.602Z","analysisUpdatedAt":"2026-07-18T15:38:29.041Z","adp":5.5,"yahooAdp":6,"overallRank":8,"week":0,"season":2026,"format":"Half-PPR","latestTweet":{"tweetId":"2089781721994518751","tweetText":"Jaxon Smith-Njigba on his route running:\n\n\"A good route runner has to be a good artist.\"\n\nhttps://t.co/PhNEofSGL2","tweetUrl":"https://x.com/UnderdogNFL/status/2089781721994518751","tweetedAt":"2026-08-18T18:29:23.000Z","source":"underdog"},"player":{"id":533,"slug":"jaxon-smith-njigba","name":"Jaxon Smith-Njigba","team":"Seattle Seahawks","position":"WR","imageUrl":"https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nfl/players/full/4430878.png","bio":null,"nflTeamAbbr":"SEA","isSleeper":false,"pickemRecYards":1324.5,"pickemRecTds":8.5,"pickemRushYards":null,"pickemRushTds":null,"pickemPassYards":null,"pickemPassTds":null}},{"id":1595,"rank":9,"opponent":null,"gameTimeEt":null,"gameDate":null,"isHome":null,"last4Rank":null,"last4ExpRank":null,"matchupRank":null,"overUnder":null,"teamImpliedPoints":null,"oppImpliedPoints":null,"projection":227.5,"verdict":"Walker set to play with best OL and QB of his career as Reid's new Shady McCoy","analysis":"

The Chiefs signed Kenneth Walker to a 3-year, $43M contract with $28M guaranteed because their RB room has been dreadful for years. The combination of Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, C Creed Humphrey, and RG Trey Smith has elevated the rushing success rate, but it hasn't created nearly enough explosives. Compare that to the Seahawks, who have had a way worse OL than the Chiefs since 2022:

That's all Walker, who finally got the backfield to himself down the stretch last year, resulting in a Super Bowl MVP. Walker's boom-bust style will smooth out with better interior blocking and an elite QB next to him, especially entering the actual prime of his career as a 25-year-old.

The Chiefs are still relatively weak at receiver and seem to be hinting at a scheme change in 2026 with OC Eric Bieniemy back in house. They are going to run the ball more under center, I think. If they don't have the WRs to beat man coverage, then they need to punish light boxes and create explosives on the ground. It's why Walker was such a perfect fit this offseason.

On top of that, Walker faces one of the shallowest RB depth charts. It's Emari Demercado ($500k guaranteed), undersized 5th-round rookie Emmett Johnson, and converted WR Brashard Smith behind him. Who is stealing any goal line touches? Who is preventing him from a career-best season as a receiver?

If he sets a career high in touches per game (currently at 18) this season as expected, then Walker has a mid-range RB1 season well within his range, especially in half PPR. The Chiefs are 11th in projected points according to the betting markets, but Mahomes looks well ahead of schedule and should be in the starting lineup from the get go.

We also have the history of Reid and RBs, dating back to Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook, Jamaal Charles, and LeSean McCoy, who is a great comp for Walker. In his final 3 seasons with McCoy, Shady's 17-game pace was 1825 scrimmage yards.

Let's just hope Walker's core holds up.

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Lamb has averaged 90 receiving yards per game from 2022-2025 when Dak Prescott has started. He's the WR3 on WR5 usage and a 26% target share (WR5) over that span.

With George Pickens balling out last year, Lamb averaged 89 receiving yards per game on a 26% target share, if we remove his two injured games. He was the WR8 on WR6 usage, with the only real difference being he scored 0.25 touchdowns per game rather than his baseline of 0.37. Long story short, Pickens' breakout just made the Cowboys a better offense. It didn't really matter for Lamb's fantasy production.

Well, the Cowboys are 6th in projected points this year with the same HC, OC, OL, RB, TE, and WR rooms. Dallas' defense should go from laughable to pretty good, but this should remain a team that will play fast on offense (2nd in neutral pace) and press the right button in terms of scheme (play action, motion, etc.).

Lamb (1149 receiving yards and 7.5 receiving TDs) is a slight tier down from Ja'Marr Chase (1324-10.5), Puka Nacua (1299-7.5), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (1324-8.5) in the live markets, but he compares almost identically to late 1st-round picks Amon-Ra St. Brown (1199-8.5) and Justin Jefferson (1149-7.5). Lamb is a top-12 player, even in half PPR.

","analysisLocked":false,"confidence":null,"isHaydenPlay":false,"isSleeper":false,"tag":null,"rankerSlug":"hayden","updatedAt":"2026-08-19T03:48:54.602Z","analysisUpdatedAt":"2026-07-14T04:18:01.438Z","adp":9.7,"yahooAdp":10,"overallRank":10,"week":0,"season":2026,"format":"Half-PPR","latestTweet":null,"player":{"id":539,"slug":"ceedee-lamb","name":"CeeDee Lamb","team":"Dallas Cowboys","position":"WR","imageUrl":"https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nfl/players/full/4241389.png","bio":null,"nflTeamAbbr":"DAL","isSleeper":false,"pickemRecYards":1199.5,"pickemRecTds":7.5,"pickemRushYards":null,"pickemRushTds":0.5,"pickemPassYards":null,"pickemPassTds":null}},{"id":1587,"rank":11,"opponent":null,"gameTimeEt":null,"gameDate":null,"isHome":null,"last4Rank":null,"last4ExpRank":null,"matchupRank":null,"overUnder":null,"teamImpliedPoints":null,"oppImpliedPoints":null,"projection":233.9,"verdict":"Achane at risk w/o McDaniel, but lack of weapons and an underrated OL insulate","analysis":"

It's fair to assume the very peak of Achane's fantasy status is behind him. He was the RB5 on RB7 last year, and he's been the RB7 on RB10 usage over the past two seasons in half PPR. He's even better in full PPR.

Mike McDaniel is one of the best play designers in the NFL, especially for his RBs after orchestrating the Shanahan rushing offense for years. Achane has been the RB6 in rush yards over expected (+13%) over the past two seasons, while routinely getting to the edge off of fancy designs. I'm far less optimistic that new OC Bobby Slowik and his OL coach from a failed Texans stint will be nearly as effective on the whiteboard.

There's also some risk that the new staff won't give Achane (5'9\"/191) the same workload as McDaniel did. It takes some out of the box perspective to do so, and it's not a guarantee that his top-16 carries per game carry over. I think it will, but it's not a given.

As important to everything is the QB change. Malik Willis will help Achane spring open rushing lanes, in similar ways Lamar Jackson has for his RBs over the years. Willis is also a threat for goal-line scores in ways that Tua Tagovailoa wasn't, and he's far less likely to check the ball down than Tua was because he can simply scramble himself.

It'd be insane to not feature Achane as a receiver, however, so the Dolphins coaching staff would have to get a near failing grade to not keep Achane in the low-end RB1 mix, especially in full PPR. They have nobody else to throw the ball to, and Achane is a building block for the entire organization. The underrated part of the Dolphins team, if any, is this OL. Aaron Brewer is a top-3 center, LT Patrick Paul broke out last year with elite athleticism, and 1st-round RG/RT Kadyn Proctor is as big as a house with rare feet for his size. That should keep Achane rolling, even if we'll miss McDaniel on the sticks.

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Barkley is the RB6 on RB5 usage over the past two seasons as an Eagle. Only Jonathan Taylor is averaging more carries per game (20.1) and only Derrick Henry is averaging more rushing yards per game (101).

Of course, it was the tail of two seasons. Barkley was the RB1 overall in 2024 (21.6 half PPR points per game) as a Super Bowl champ before falling to RB14 last year when the Eagles were 19th in scoring.

Which season is more likely? Probably neither.

The Eagles are projected for the 12th most points per the betting markets with a new play caller and without A.J. Brown. Last year's OC ran out of ideas quickly, while new OC Sean Mannion comes from a very efficient and balanced Packers offense that allowed Josh Jacobs to be a 1st-round caliber player. Barkley will miss GOAT OL coach Jeff Stoutland, but there's hope that RT Lane Johnson (9 games), LG Landon Dickerson (14 games), and C Cam Jurgens (14 Games) play more and play healthier.

The area he can improve on is short-yardage efficiency. Last year, Saquon scored 1 rushing TD on 11 carries inside the 5-yard line, on a brutal -85.9% rush yards over expected. That is absolutely not a Saquon stat. That's an injured OL stat, and it's a sign for positive regression.

If Saquon does split the difference between RB1 and RB14, then he's a great pick at 14th overall on Underdog, especially in half PPR or standard. Saquon's floor seems pretty insulated after seeing the offense bust last year, so it's fair to ask who has the best ceiling between Saquon, James Cook (11th in ADP), Ashton Jeanty (12th), and De'Von Achane (13th) in their offenses. To me, that's pretty clearly Saquon.

","analysisLocked":false,"confidence":null,"isHaydenPlay":false,"isSleeper":false,"tag":null,"rankerSlug":"hayden","updatedAt":"2026-08-19T03:48:54.602Z","analysisUpdatedAt":"2026-07-14T04:19:44.028Z","adp":13.8,"yahooAdp":12,"overallRank":12,"week":0,"season":2026,"format":"Half-PPR","latestTweet":null,"player":{"id":544,"slug":"saquon-barkley","name":"Saquon Barkley","team":"Philadelphia Eagles","position":"RB","imageUrl":"https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nfl/players/full/3929630.png","bio":null,"nflTeamAbbr":"PHI","isSleeper":false,"pickemRecYards":274.5,"pickemRecTds":null,"pickemRushYards":1099.5,"pickemRushTds":8.5,"pickemPassYards":null,"pickemPassTds":null}},{"id":1589,"rank":13,"opponent":null,"gameTimeEt":null,"gameDate":null,"isHome":null,"last4Rank":null,"last4ExpRank":null,"matchupRank":null,"overUnder":null,"teamImpliedPoints":null,"oppImpliedPoints":null,"projection":247.3,"verdict":"Cook is capped from top-4 RB status, as solid RB1","analysis":"

Cook was the RB6 on RB7 usage if we remove his Week 18 game. He did it on the most carries (19.1) and rushing yards (98.3) per game. All sustainable, too. His YPC (5.1) was great but not so high that it's not repeatable. It's just the reality of playing next to Josh Allen and behind a quality OL which returns 4-of-5 starters. Cook is also quite talented himself.

Cook also didn't run super hot with TDs. He was the RB10 in inside the 5-yard line carries. He had 5 scores from outside the 20-yard line, but that's expected for someone as quick as he is in an efficient offense. The Bills were 3rd in scoring last year and are 2nd in projected scoring in 2026 per the betting markets.

The RB depth chart is the same, and his playcaller was just promoted from OC to head coach. The offense should feel nearly identical, with the only changeups being DJ Moore is on the team and the OL coach is gone. That could matter on the margins, but Allen had a relatively down season last year and could be back to his MVP level self in a hurry.

It's difficult to find the legendary season from Cook because Cook was the RB39 in receptions per game (1.9) and because Allen will steal some short-yardage TDs, but it's hard to ignore his mid-range to low-end RB1 status, especially in half PPR or standard scoring.

","analysisLocked":false,"confidence":null,"isHaydenPlay":false,"isSleeper":false,"tag":null,"rankerSlug":"hayden","updatedAt":"2026-08-19T03:48:54.602Z","analysisUpdatedAt":"2026-05-29T13:24:01.663Z","adp":10.2,"yahooAdp":9,"overallRank":13,"week":0,"season":2026,"format":"Half-PPR","latestTweet":null,"player":{"id":540,"slug":"james-cook","name":"James Cook","team":"Buffalo Bills","position":"RB","imageUrl":"https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nfl/players/full/4379399.png","bio":null,"nflTeamAbbr":"BUF","isSleeper":false,"pickemRecYards":null,"pickemRecTds":1.5,"pickemRushYards":1199.5,"pickemRushTds":10.5,"pickemPassYards":null,"pickemPassTds":null}},{"id":1597,"rank":14,"opponent":null,"gameTimeEt":null,"gameDate":null,"isHome":null,"last4Rank":null,"last4ExpRank":null,"matchupRank":null,"overUnder":null,"teamImpliedPoints":null,"oppImpliedPoints":null,"projection":230.7,"verdict":"Brown was the RB5 with Burrow last year, now drafted as RB12","analysis":"

Brown is the RB12 on RB5 usage over the past two seasons in 21 games with Joe Burrow active, using half PPR scoring. It's even better in just 2025, when Brown was the RB5 on RB4 usage in his 6 games with Burrow.

His ADP sits at RB12 in the middle of Round 2, so Brown has very clear upside if this split continues. The Bengals didn't add RB competition, Brown is healthy right now, and the Bengals are 4th in projected points according to the betting markets.

What's not to like in this contract year? Brown was the RB8 in rushing success rate in the Burrow games, and he was the RB2 in rush yards over expected on all of his carries with 3-or-fewer yards to go with or without Burrow. While still not good, the Bengals OL and rushing scheme has improved since Brown entered the NFL. That's helped his TD chances.

Brown has always been a capable receiver and last year was no different when he was the RB6 in receptions per game (4.1). The Bengals don't throw him screens (only a 10% screen rate in Burrow games since 2024), but Burrow is quick to check things down when in a shoot out.

It's hard to find reasons why he should be ranked so far off his splits with Burrow, so Brown is a clear buy in mid Round 2 if he makes it that far. I expect his rushing numbers to set career highs, while his receiving work takes a slight hit. That's a net win in half PPR.

","analysisLocked":false,"confidence":null,"isHaydenPlay":false,"isSleeper":false,"tag":null,"rankerSlug":"hayden","updatedAt":"2026-08-19T03:48:54.602Z","analysisUpdatedAt":"2026-07-14T04:24:46.223Z","adp":14.9,"yahooAdp":15,"overallRank":14,"week":0,"season":2026,"format":"Half-PPR","latestTweet":null,"player":{"id":548,"slug":"chase-brown","name":"Chase Brown","team":"Cincinnati Bengals","position":"RB","imageUrl":"https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nfl/players/full/4362238.png","bio":null,"nflTeamAbbr":"CIN","isSleeper":false,"pickemRecYards":null,"pickemRecTds":3.5,"pickemRushYards":900.5,"pickemRushTds":6.5,"pickemPassYards":null,"pickemPassTds":null}},{"id":1596,"rank":15,"opponent":null,"gameTimeEt":null,"gameDate":null,"isHome":null,"last4Rank":null,"last4ExpRank":null,"matchupRank":null,"overUnder":null,"teamImpliedPoints":null,"oppImpliedPoints":null,"projection":240.4,"verdict":"Henry projects for most rushing TDs (12.5) in the betting markets","analysis":"

Derrick Henry is the RB5 on RB13 usage over the past two seasons as a Raven in half PPR scoring. He's priced at RB11 on Underdog, so the market is expecting a decline. Henry is the RB2 in EPA per carry (+0.08) over the last two years, while he was the RB1 in rush yards over expected (+27%) last season. Natural regression is reasonable to expect, but finding legit signs of decline is difficult.

On tape, he does seem 85% of himself with his lateral mobility feeling a little worse than his long speed. The downgrade doesn't make me lose any sleep.

Last year, he had the 5th-most half PPR points in NFL history for an age-31 RB (259.4). If he did that again as a 32-year-old, then he's in the neighborhood of 195-225 fantasy points. Only Walter Peyton (ever heard of him?) and John Riggins have scored more than the 259.4 fantasy points as a 32+ year old.

That said, this is 2026 and Henry is literally built differently. If someone is more likely to defy the odds of an older back, it's Henry. If you want to add more injury risk than other bellcows, that is fair given his crazy workload but overselling those odds has hurt a lot more than helped.

On Underdog, Henry's 1239.5 rushing yards only trail Jahmyr Gibbs and Jonathan Taylor, and he has the highest rushing touchdown projection (12.5) of anyone. In half PPR, the upside is tantalizing.

The Ravens are 5th in projected points this season, and even RB2 Keaton Mitchell and TE2 Isiah Likely are out of the way without anyone really sliding into those roles. We'll see if new OC Declan Doyle is an upgrade over serviceable OC Todd Monken, and if the loss of C Tyler Linderbaum vs. the addition of 14th-overall OG Vega Ioane ends up mattering. I'd mostly call those changes a wash.

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Jefferson is about to remind everyone that he's arguably the best WR in the NFL.

Before the disasterclass of the 2025 Vikings QBs, Jefferson was averaging the most PPR points per game (20.1) among WRs from 2022-2024 if we also remove the Josh Dobbs and Jaren Hall games. That was 100.1 receiving yards, also the most over that sample.

Kyler Murray is far closer to the Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold tier of QB than he is the JJ McCarthy, Carson Wentz, Dobbs, and Hall tier. And Kyler's best throws (downfield and sideline shots) are what Jefferson thrives at and what coach Kevin O'Connell pushes for as a playcaller.

The Vikings were 26th in points per game last year and now project to at least be 20th according to the betting markets. That feels low to me, after O'Connell has made every QB look better than their talent (aside from JJM). Kyler has produced great seasons out of DeAndre Hopkins (2020 - 88 YPG and 2022 - 80 YPG) and Trey McBride (2024 - 72 YPG) attached to the worst franchise in the NFL. Jefferson doesn't have the infrastructure that Ja'Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, and Amon-Ra St. Brown have, but he's a lot closer to them now that Kyler is in house.

","analysisLocked":false,"confidence":null,"isHaydenPlay":false,"isSleeper":false,"tag":null,"rankerSlug":"hayden","updatedAt":"2026-08-19T03:48:54.602Z","analysisUpdatedAt":"2026-07-14T04:06:57.167Z","adp":11.1,"yahooAdp":11,"overallRank":16,"week":0,"season":2026,"format":"Half-PPR","latestTweet":null,"player":{"id":537,"slug":"justin-jefferson","name":"Justin Jefferson","team":"Minnesota Vikings","position":"WR","imageUrl":"https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nfl/players/full/4262921.png","bio":null,"nflTeamAbbr":"MIN","isSleeper":false,"pickemRecYards":1149.5,"pickemRecTds":7.5,"pickemRushYards":null,"pickemRushTds":null,"pickemPassYards":null,"pickemPassTds":null}},{"id":1591,"rank":17,"opponent":null,"gameTimeEt":null,"gameDate":null,"isHome":null,"last4Rank":null,"last4ExpRank":null,"matchupRank":null,"overUnder":null,"teamImpliedPoints":null,"oppImpliedPoints":null,"projection":238.5,"verdict":"Jeanty has RB1 projection with new HC, OC, QB, OL, DEF","analysis":"

Everything went wrong for Jeanty as a rookie. He was the RB16 on RB11 usage in half PPR, buoying his fantasy appeal with receptions (RB9 per game) rather than rushing yards (RB23 per game).

On tape, Jeanty is exceptional at forcing missed tackles in space by running with power. The NFL RB average is 0.16 missed tackles per carry when not contacted behind the line of scrimmage, and Jeanty was at 0.29. This was all over his Boise State tape. Unfortunately, some of his league-worst hit behind the OL stats are on him. He was a bit too indecisive for me, and he is nowhere near the elites in terms of foot quickness. He can get better with processing, but I have my doubts about the foot quickness.

So what has changed? A lot.

The biggest change for the Raiders is coaching. Ex-OC Chip Kelley couldn't beat the \"does he even want to be here\" allegations last year, while new HC Klint Kubiak is coming off a Super Bowl victory with his offense ranking 10th in EPA per play, 6th in rushing yards, and 2nd in points. Kubiak calls a fast-paced (3rd in neutral pace last year), balanced offense (18th in neutral pass rate). That's good for Jeanty.

The OL is also welcoming top-5ish C Tyler Linderbaum on a record-breaking contract. Solid LT Kolton Miller should play more than the 4 games he had last year. Free agent veteran LG Spencer Burford will battle 3rd-round rookie Trey Zuhn. And there's always a chance that the right side with RG Jackson Powers-Johnson and RT DJ Glaze take a step up. This won't be a good OL, but it shouldn't be an OL that led to Jeanty having a 0.6 yards before contact ranking of RB52 out of 52 qualifiers. Dead last.

On the margins, the QB play between Kirk Cousins and Fernando Mendoza should be better than 2025 Geno Smith. Same with the skill group with Brock Bowers healthy and Jalen Nailor in the mix. And finally, same with the defense as it added two new edge rushers, two off-ball linebackers, and three role players in the secondary.

Jeanty will have 4th-round crazy athlete Mike Washington to complement him, but all coaching quotes suggest Jeanty is coming off the field near league-low rates. His workload will be inside the top-8 this year, if not higher.

Jeanty doesn't have the elite athleticism of the Gibbs, Bijan, Saquon, and Taylor tier of RBs, but he will showcase more broken tackles in 2026 with more space to operate. It'd be a surprise if he wasn't a top-10 fantasy RB now.

","analysisLocked":false,"confidence":null,"isHaydenPlay":false,"isSleeper":false,"tag":null,"rankerSlug":"hayden","updatedAt":"2026-08-19T03:48:54.602Z","analysisUpdatedAt":"2026-06-10T15:39:57.557Z","adp":12,"yahooAdp":13,"overallRank":17,"week":0,"season":2026,"format":"Half-PPR","latestTweet":null,"player":{"id":542,"slug":"ashton-jeanty","name":"Ashton Jeanty","team":"Las Vegas Raiders","position":"RB","imageUrl":"https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nfl/players/full/4890973.png","bio":null,"nflTeamAbbr":"LV","isSleeper":false,"pickemRecYards":349.5,"pickemRecTds":2.5,"pickemRushYards":1030.5,"pickemRushTds":7.5,"pickemPassYards":null,"pickemPassTds":null}},{"id":1306,"rank":18,"opponent":null,"gameTimeEt":null,"gameDate":null,"isHome":null,"last4Rank":null,"last4ExpRank":null,"matchupRank":null,"overUnder":null,"teamImpliedPoints":null,"oppImpliedPoints":null,"projection":202.5,"verdict":"Bowers should have highest target share among TEs ... by far","analysis":"

Bowers is the next Travis Kelce for fantasy football. Bowers' 64.6 YPG through his first two seasons are the most since at least 2000 at TE, and his five closest comps (George Kittle, Jeremy Shockey, Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, and Aaron Hernandez) averaged 4 more YPG in their third NFL season. His 13-closest comps averaged +7 YPG, too. That includes HOF talents like Antonio Gates and Kelce.

The combination of Kirk Cousins and Fernando Mendoza at QB with Super Bowl-winning OC Klint Kubiak is such a better setup than whatever we're calling 2025. Bowers is likely to be healthier, and the Raiders are (somehow) even worse at receiver heading into 2026 if we view Jalen Nailor as a downgrade to Jakobi Meyers. I do. The defense is better but will still create garbage time receptions for Bowers.

Any TE nearing 70 YPG is worthy of an early Round 2 selection in full PPR redraft leagues, where the value of late-round TE is lowest. He's still a target in mid to late Round 2 in half PPR best ball, however. Most sharp fantasy analysts are overweight Bowers right now.

On top of all that, a former analytics director from the Raiders is starting to do content. He just tweeted this: \"We had a goal last year in Las Vegas of single season record for catches and targets for Brock before the week 1 injury.\" Adjust the ranks.

","analysisLocked":false,"confidence":null,"isHaydenPlay":false,"isSleeper":false,"tag":null,"rankerSlug":"hayden","updatedAt":"2026-08-19T03:48:54.602Z","analysisUpdatedAt":"2026-07-16T15:36:38.681Z","adp":19.9,"yahooAdp":21,"overallRank":18,"week":0,"season":2026,"format":"Half-PPR","latestTweet":null,"player":{"id":543,"slug":"brock-bowers","name":"Brock Bowers","team":"Las Vegas Raiders","position":"TE","imageUrl":"https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nfl/players/full/4432665.png","bio":null,"nflTeamAbbr":"LV","isSleeper":false,"pickemRecYards":899.5,"pickemRecTds":7.5,"pickemRushYards":null,"pickemRushTds":null,"pickemPassYards":null,"pickemPassTds":null}},{"id":1600,"rank":19,"opponent":null,"gameTimeEt":null,"gameDate":null,"isHome":null,"last4Rank":null,"last4ExpRank":null,"matchupRank":null,"overUnder":null,"teamImpliedPoints":null,"oppImpliedPoints":null,"projection":184.3,"verdict":"Nabers (ACL) on pace to return about Week 3 as a Ja'Marr Chase talent","analysis":"

The consensus around Nabers' timeline is about Week 3. That's what ESPN's Jordan Raanan hinted towards, noting it could be Week 1 to a short stint on PUP in the worst-end outcomes. He made progress in July after not looking right in a celebrity softball game in the offseason.

He needed a cleanup procedure for a meniscus that was locking up, in addition to rehabbing his torn ACL. Multiple issues adds to the risk, and at the same time, Nabers is a 22-year-old world class athlete, even amongst NFL players.

If he's out Weeks 1-3, for example, you are not getting 0 fantasy points in your starting lineup. It should be easy to find replacements when the rest of the league is healthy, so we should only knock him so much if his absence is in fact short. Players like this aren't immediately themselves, but after a month or so, they often are 80-90%.

Nabers has as much potential as anyone outside of Round 1 from Week 5 on. He is PPR's WR6 on WR3 usage on a per-game basis since his rookie year in 2024. The Giants were 27th in scoring, 26th in passing yards, 27th in passing success rate, and 30th in EPA per dropback over that span, and he's barely played with Jaxson Dart, who is on pace to be a solid starting QB after making things work as a rookie himself. New York is still only projected for the 22nd-most points per the betting markets, but it should be a tier above what Nabers' has been used to.

I'm buying the dip now that his ADP has settled past the third round. If we learn he's going to play in Week 1 or Week 2, then he'd be going next to A.J. Brown and George Pickens quite comfortably.

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London is an underrated super star. Aside from not running a 4.35 forty, London has no real holes. He has a huge frame, catches the ball cleanly, fights for extra yards, can dunk on CBs, and can sink his hips. He has a case to be as high as the 6th-best WR in the NFL right now.

London was the WR5 on WR5 usage from 2024 through Week 11 of 2025 when he went down with a PCL injury. Only Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase had a higher target share (29.6%) over that span, and the Falcons only added depth in the skill group this offseason in 3rd-round slot Zachariah Branch, Jahan Dotson, and Olamide Zaccheaus. Long story short, London is getting the damn rock this season.

The Falcons underwent coaching and potentially QB changes this offseason, but neither seem worrisome versus last year's reality. Coach Kevin Stefanski is experienced and provides a real floor to the scheme, while Tua Tagovailoa can pepper London underneath and intermediate now that he's playing more slot than ever. If Penix can beat out Tua coming off his third ACL, then we're back to where we were last season.

The Falcons defense could regress some, too. It's unclear if EDGE James Pearce Jr. will be eligible to play at all this season, and they didn't add much this offseason. Stud DC Jeff Ulbrich will have to work his magic again. This all helps London get targets.

London has a low-end WR1 floor baked in, and if something ever happens to Bijan Robinson or Kyle Pitts, then he can flirt with the best receiving production in the NFL. He's an easy click in Round 2, especially in full PPR where he's closer to a borderline Round 1 value. His 1124.5 yardage projection is in the neighborhood of Amon-Ra St. Brown (1199), Justin Jefferson (1149), and CeeDee Lamb (1174). They are all consensus Round 1 players.

","analysisLocked":false,"confidence":null,"isHaydenPlay":false,"isSleeper":false,"tag":null,"rankerSlug":"hayden","updatedAt":"2026-08-19T03:48:54.602Z","analysisUpdatedAt":"2026-07-14T04:23:59.449Z","adp":21.4,"yahooAdp":19,"overallRank":20,"week":0,"season":2026,"format":"Half-PPR","latestTweet":null,"player":{"id":550,"slug":"drake-london","name":"Drake London","team":"Atlanta Falcons","position":"WR","imageUrl":"https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nfl/players/full/4426502.png","bio":null,"nflTeamAbbr":"ATL","isSleeper":false,"pickemRecYards":1124.5,"pickemRecTds":7.5,"pickemRushYards":null,"pickemRushTds":null,"pickemPassYards":null,"pickemPassTds":null}},{"id":1598,"rank":21,"opponent":null,"gameTimeEt":null,"gameDate":null,"isHome":null,"last4Rank":null,"last4ExpRank":null,"matchupRank":null,"overUnder":null,"teamImpliedPoints":null,"oppImpliedPoints":null,"projection":203.7,"verdict":"Contract-year Pickens is an upside WR2 in great returning Cowboys offense","analysis":"

The timing of signing the franchise tag rightfully drew speculation that a draft weekend trade was likely, but that came and went. It sounds like the Jones family was being nice and just called Pickens' agent to chat. Fair enough! Pickens is no longer a hold out risk and less likely of a trade target after the 2026 draft passed.

So what's stopping him from being a Round 2 pick? Dallas didn't add anyone on offense this offseason and is running back the same staff and starters around him. He was the WR6 on WR12 usage last season with CeeDee Lamb missing time.

In 13 games WITH Lamb, Pickens averaged 77 YPG en route to a WR10 per-game average on WR13 usage. His targets with Lamb active had a 63% success rate (WR4), too, because they come when Lamb is getting the shaded coverage on the other side. 1-on-1 to Pickens is as good as it gets.

Pickens will not be as consistent as the Drake London types in Round 2 (no screens, fewer gimme targets), but he has just as much upside if something happens to Lamb again or if Pickens' is just undeniably great. He's improved on film every year and is 25 years old while playing in a contract year.

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Hampton is one of the most physically gifted RBs in the NFL. His long speed is outstanding for a 220-pounder, and he has soft hands out of the backfield. Hampton has the profile to be a bellcow back, but there are some areas of concern, too, as he develops.

Hampton has bad pacing and eyes as a runner right now. He was late reading things out on some reps, and then too quick picking a hole on others. The Chargers OL did him few favors, but Hampton's success rate would've been a tier better with better decisions. To put this into perspective, Hampton's rush yards over expected were -40% with 3-or-fewer yards to go, then +21% on 4-of-more yards to go. This should improve some with more experience and better coaching, but it's enough of a worry right now to cast some doubt that he'll be a no-doubter 15+ carry player.

When Hampton has space, he's electric. He carved up the Giants with pure speed. It's enough to not just win races to the 1st-down marker, but to also create 50+ yard touchdowns. This isn't surprising given his 96th percentile broad jump and 4.46 speed.

Hampton also runs tough on contact. He can drag defenders for hidden yardage and then bounce off defensive backs at the next level. He does run fairly tall, so he's not avoiding contact often, but he will deliver damage and shows plenty of effort.

Hampton's receiving ability is quite good. There were some difficult grabs and downfield routes on tape, plus he caught everything in the swing/screen/checkdown world. Unfortunately, Hampton's pass protection tape bordered on atrocious. He has the mass to be great, yet over-indexes on wanting to light everyone up instead of staying square. On top of whiffed blocks, there were misses in identification, too. He has to get better to earn more targets.

The new coaching staff must be taken into account. New OC Mike McDaniel is a run-game guru who gravitates towards speed. That's both Hampton and Mitchell. It won't be a surprise to see both of them high in explosive carries this year with hopefully healthier OTs and a clear upgrade at C with Tyler Biadasz. The ceiling is obvious if everything comes together.

Hampton's floor given his 2nd-round ADP is less settling because of the between-tackles tape and the quality of depth behind him. He'd be a super smash even in the 3rd round with his upside, but the safety of Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Chase Brown is more enticing to me early in Round 2. Hampton was the RB16 on RB16 usage in half PPR from Weeks 1-17 without Mitchell involved.

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Collins is a total freak. At 6'4\"/222, he showcases elite build up speed on his vertical routes, while also having the fluidity to be an asset after the catch on screens and slants. If ranking WRs based on real-life talent, I'd place him 3rd or 4th.

Since 2023, Collins is the WR7 on WR14 usage using PPR scoring. He's the WR3 in yards per target (10.3) and WR6 in EPA per target (+0.48) despite having incredible volume in a mediocre offense.

The hope is eventually CJ Stroud gets his groove back. Last year, targets to Collins had a 62% catchable ball rate. That was 76% in both 2023 and 2024. He also had a 16% screen rate in those two seasons versus just 3% last year. Seems dumb, Mr. Caley!

On top of this, the Texans were 32nd in percentage of their red zone drives finishing with a TD (32%), which is a stat that is bound for regression. 19 red zone targets to Collins resulted 3.1 yards per target, -8% completion percentage over expected, 37% success rate, and just 3 touchdowns. Shocking.

Houston's offensive coaching staff and OL deeply worry me, but Collins is too elite and Stroud has flashed too much potential to ignore a reasonable ADP of WR9. It'd be a fireable offense for him to not be a top-15 fantasy WR at this point, and if everything clicks, Collins has a very similar skillset to the Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba tier of receivers.

I want Collins on my team.

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AJB started off and ended his 2025 season mad, but do not discount what he did in the middle of the year. In total, Brown was half PPR's WR15 on WR17 usage, when the Eagles bottomed out to the tune of finishing 23rd in passing yards, 22nd in passing success rate, and 19th in points per game.

Brown had career lows in yards per target (8.5) and success rate (50%), while playing in a very static X position in an extra boring/predictable offense. Is this decline? Is this attitude? Is this scheme?

It's a little of everything, which makes me optimistic for 2026. Brown should be stoked to play with an MVP quarterback and his old coach. In terms of attitude, this should be a honeymoon.

Patriots OC Josh McDaniels had wild seasons with Davante Adams on the Raiders (180-100-1516-14 and 175-103-1144-8), in addition to whatever credit he gets for Brady in the previous decade and Maye last year. The Patriots averaged 42 more pass yards per game than the Eagles did. Maye was 1st in completion percentage over expected, while Hurts was 10th. And Maye's catchable ball rate on 10+ air yard passes was 10% better than Hurts' last year. In terms of environment, this is an upgrade, especially as he competes with Romeo Doubs for targets instead of DeVonta Smith.

The decline part is trickiest. Brown broke about two-thirds of the tackles he usually does, even though the type of routes he ran last year were almost identical to his career rates. He was a lot closer to average in his signature yards after the catch over expected metric, after being the WR4, WR14, and WR4 in the previous three seasons. An offense that calls for fewer hitches and more crossers and gos would help out, and Brown could be more energized to make plays on the margins. Let's not forget Brown had a training camp hamstring injury that really made him look lethargic in September. He's healthy right now.

That said, Brown did look maybe 10% less dynamic than his mid-career peak, at least turning the corner. There are reports of long-term issues with his knee, which makes the risk on New England's end greater the closer we get to this 2028 1st-round pick. Still, Brown's elite athleticism has room to fall, and he's only 28 years old right now. Over analyzing his decline is asking to be left off the party invitation.

Brown could match the CeeDee Lamb to Nico Collins tier if things go well, and it doesn't take a genius to say former All Pro WR linking with MVP runner up could pan out well. Brown is an upside WR2 and easy target in Round 3 after re-examining his tape.

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Olave's role changed under HC Kellen Moore. From 2022-24, Olave had a fairly-deep average depth of target (13.1 yards). Then in 2025, Olave's aDOT dropped to 11.8 yards because he suddenly averaged 3.4 receptions per game within 5 air yards versus 1.6 in his first three seasons.

Olave also stayed healthy, allowing him to be the WR7 on WR6 usage in PPR. He was 5th in targets per game (9.5) and didn't have to get home with elite efficiency. He simply got the rock with stable QB play led by Tyler Shough, who projects to get better in year two.

Olave flies on his downfield routes and is one of the smoothest and craftiest route runners underneath, too. He's not overly physical so there are some very minor limitations to his game, but he's very clearly in that second tier of NFL receivers on tape.

For fantasy football, Olave benefits from the extremely fast-paced offense and how well Moore can assist his receivers with motion or stacked sets. The Saints still only project to be the No. 22 scoring offense per the betting markets, but that's enough for Olave to maintain an upside WR2 case in fantasy.

The primary downsides are that he's had a major concussion history and has dealt with blood clots for the past half year, plus the addition of 1st-round WR Jordyn Tyson, who can do some of the underneath work that Olave added to his plate as the clear-cut top target in last year's offense. For those reasons, I'm adding a minor downside case to my rankings, and I'd still draft him at the Round 3/4 border depending on the league settings.

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With the 3rd overall draft capital locked in, Love is confirmed as a 100th percentile prospect in my model next to the likes of Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, Reggie Bush, Melvin Gordon, Ashton Jeanty, Darren McFadden, Bijan Robinson, Todd Gurley, Adrian Peterson, and Jonathan Taylor. Elite company. This cohort of players ranged from 6.5 to 21.3 half PPR points per game during their rookie seasons (huge range), with an average of 14.3. Last year, that would've made him the RB12 (Javonte Williams), while the RB7 (Derrick Henry) averaged 16.0 and the RB5 (De'Von Achane) averaged 18.1. A realistic range has been established.

Love's skillset is ideal for fantasy football because he is an exceptional receiver out of the backfield with the 212-pound frame to project for 18+ touches per week. There is a chance the heavier and well-paid Tyler Allgeier (and even James Conner) could steal some goal line touches from him, just like Bijan dealt with as a rookie, but there is no chance he's not their pass-game back. His protection at Notre Dame was solid, and his explosiveness and hands are on another stratosphere than his backfield competition. This Arizona defense doesn't feel any different from last year when they were 29th in scoring, so there should be garbage time receptions baked in here. Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew are certainly bad, but they are at least functional enough for garbage time numbers in 2026.

It's far from an ideal landing spot this season with Arizona striking out on RTs in the early parts of the draft, but it's not awful either. This is unlikely to reach Jeanty-Raiders bad (RB17 per game), but it's a factor to consider if the market pushes him up into Round 1. I'd put Love firmly above the Breece Hall and Josh Jacobs tier but firmly below the proven elite RB1s. He's a fringe Round 2 player depending on the format.

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Allen has finished as the QB1 (24.6 points per game), QB3 (23.7), QB1 (25.8), and QB1 (26.4) in recent seasons. The last two years were his worst fantasy years in a long time, and he still separated from the mid and low-end fantasy QB1s.

In terms of overall finishes using fantasy points over replacement per game in half PPR, Allen has been 30th, 18th, 30th, and 19th. It'll be a tier worse than that in full PPR, but the Round 2-3 baseline value is hard to argue with.

Enter D.J. Moore and a hopefully healthier Dalton Kincaid for 2026. The Bills pass-catching groups since the Stefon Diggs departure have been underwhelming, and the offense has been more run heavy and less explosive because of it. If forced to guess if the Bills offense will be better or worse this year, I'd guess better. There is a case for worse with a new OL coach and the OL getting another year older, but a notable decline in any way would be a surprise.

Where things get trickiest is evaluating the opportunity cost of Allen in redraft leagues, particularly in full PPR. This year's QB2-QB6 offer strong passing numbers with a great rushing ceiling, yet come 2-4 rounds cheaper. Then the borderline QB1 range goes as deep as I can remember, possibly to QB20 if the Jordan Love to Malik Willis group hits their ceilings. There's a case to be made to double dip in the Herbert, Stafford, Nix, Murray, etc. tier this year in redraft.

","analysisLocked":false,"confidence":null,"isHaydenPlay":false,"isSleeper":false,"tag":null,"rankerSlug":"hayden","updatedAt":"2026-08-19T03:48:54.602Z","analysisUpdatedAt":"2026-07-22T03:18:14.687Z","adp":36.4,"yahooAdp":20,"overallRank":27,"week":0,"season":2026,"format":"Half-PPR","latestTweet":null,"player":{"id":555,"slug":"josh-allen","name":"Josh Allen","team":"Buffalo Bills","position":"QB","imageUrl":"https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nfl/players/full/3918298.png","bio":null,"nflTeamAbbr":"BUF","isSleeper":false,"pickemRecYards":null,"pickemRecTds":null,"pickemRushYards":499.5,"pickemRushTds":10.5,"pickemPassYards":3599.5,"pickemPassTds":26.5}},{"id":1608,"rank":28,"opponent":null,"gameTimeEt":null,"gameDate":null,"isHome":null,"last4Rank":null,"last4ExpRank":null,"matchupRank":null,"overUnder":null,"teamImpliedPoints":null,"oppImpliedPoints":null,"projection":182.5,"verdict":"McMillan has the tape to believe in a top-15 WR breakout","analysis":"

McMillan rode a consistent rookie season to OROY honors. He hit the ground running as the Panthers' very best offensive player, ultimately averaging as the WR24 on WR23 usage. Rookies with those type of numbers are often future fantasy WR1s, and McMillan has a lot of volume-based traits for someone who is also 6'5\"/212.

On tape, McMillan does an outstanding job of working against the CB's leverage. He can dance with them against off coverage, and he can force CB's to work further into their leverage before he breaks away from it. McMillan simply has veteran feel.

In tight coverage, McMillan also has a great frame and hands to win contested. The Panthers were pretty reliant on him winning on 3rd/4th down situations, and many of those reps required a well-timed push off to create the last second separation. They'd occasionally place him into the slot where they could run rub routes, back shoulder fades, or slant routes, all with great success (insert your Borat impression).

His speed won't amaze, but McMillan is fast enough. He had a dig route vs. the Cardinals that showed his long strides after the catch, and there were times when he'd be so open down the field that Bryce Young would lolly it up to him for chunk gain.

In general, McMillan has a similar game to Drake London, Mike Evans, and even Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and we should fully expect him to blossom into one of the top-15 best players at this position. I'm buying him at WR18, and there are indications from the Panthers' offseason moves that they might add more spread to their offense rather than being mega balanced. That fits Bryce's and T-Mac's strengths.

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With A.J. Brown gone, Smith is the clear-cut WR1 for the first time since he broke as a rookie in 2021. In 5 games without AJB since then, Smith is the WR3 in yards per game (89) on WR10 targets (9.0). It's an extremely small sample and the Eagles have Makai Lemon now plus their red zone rush rate, but Smith could put up top-10 receiving yards if OC Sean Mannion proves to be an upgrade over last year's static play caller.

Smith was just at 64 YPG and 7.0 targets in games with AJB over that same sample. This could be a 10-20 receiving yards per game trade for Smith, who is firmly in the prime of his career without an injury history. While not quite as physically imposing as the others in the top-10 conversation, Smith checks every box and is capable of moving all across the formation. He'll probably play more outside this year, which could lead to a higher aDOT. I'd welcome that in fantasy, particularly in best ball.

Another framing for Smith's 2026 fantasy value is to see where Brown ranked as Hurts' WR1 over the years, even if these are closer to upside comps than baseline comps. Brown was PPR's WR14 last year, WR16 in 2024, WR8 in 2023, and WR9 in 2022. It paints the picture of a low-end WR1 upside case and a projectable WR2 baseline in both full and half PPR.

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Williams looked a little healthier on tape last season, even if he's maxed out athletically compared to others in the top-3 rounds of fantasy drafts. What he's good at (vision, power, protection) is what coaches love, and the Cowboys have some great coaches on offense. Javonte looks like a saint next to Jaydon Blue and Malik Davis, so his playing time feels quite safe after signing a 3-year, $24M contract with $16M guaranteed.

As the clear starter last year, Williams was the RB13 on RB6 usage using half PPR scoring. That meant an 18th overall finish in total fantasy points over replacement.

His efficiency was fine in the lens of EPA per carry (RB3 among backs with 10+ carries per game) and goal-line success rate (RB1 overall). He was just horrific as a receiver, averaging 2.7 yards per target with a 33% success rate. All of that should even out as an upside RB2 with a volume-based floor.

The Cowboys were 2nd in neutral pace last year, and they're projected for the 6th-most points in 2026 according to the betting markets. Williams just has to be serviceable as an individual talent to pay off his 36th overall ADP.

Williams' 1124 rushing yards, 9.5 rushing TDs, and 224 receiving yards projections from the live markets are similar to fringe 1st-round picks Saquon Barkley (1099-8.5-274), James Cook (1199-10.5), Ashton Jeanty (1030-7.5-349), and De'Von Achane (999-5.5-424). That's name brand arbitrage.

","analysisLocked":false,"confidence":null,"isHaydenPlay":false,"isSleeper":false,"tag":null,"rankerSlug":"hayden","updatedAt":"2026-08-19T03:48:54.602Z","analysisUpdatedAt":"2026-07-14T04:32:12.330Z","adp":35.1,"yahooAdp":33,"overallRank":30,"week":0,"season":2026,"format":"Half-PPR","latestTweet":null,"player":{"id":561,"slug":"javonte-williams","name":"Javonte Williams","team":"Dallas Cowboys","position":"RB","imageUrl":"https://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/nfl/players/full/4361579.png","bio":null,"nflTeamAbbr":"DAL","isSleeper":false,"pickemRecYards":224.5,"pickemRecTds":null,"pickemRushYards":1024.5,"pickemRushTds":9.5,"pickemPassYards":null,"pickemPassTds":null}},{"id":1603,"rank":31,"opponent":null,"gameTimeEt":null,"gameDate":null,"isHome":null,"last4Rank":null,"last4ExpRank":null,"matchupRank":null,"overUnder":null,"teamImpliedPoints":null,"oppImpliedPoints":null,"projection":189.7,"verdict":"Etienne is the buy to take advantage of slept-on Saints O","analysis":"

Etienne has cleared 1,399 total yards in 3-of-4 NFL seasons, and his lone miss was when unhealthy with coach Doug Pederson. Quietly, this is Etienne's best environment he's ever been in for fantasy points.

Coach Kellen Moore has been functional at every stop, including in his head coaching debut last year with emerging QB Tyler Shough. The Saints were 1st in neutral pace per UnderdogRankings.com's advanced stats page, but they couldn't create explosives. If Etienne brings that to the table, then the Saints could clear their projected No. 24 scoring offense.

The Saints OL features promising 1st-round talents at both OT spots, two returning players on the interior, and then a new floor-raising veteran at LG. It should be an above-average unit for Etienne to run behind.

Etienne will lose some, if not most, of the pass-down snaps to the $6M-restructured Alvin Kamara, but most fantasy RB2s do not play all downs, so don't double count the news. Instead, don't be surprised if Etienne matches his RB11 on RB14 usage per-game finishes from last season if the Saints can take a year two leap with this young offense.

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Hall signed a $29M guaranteed contract ($14.5M APY) to be the Jets bellcow back. He should be at full health this time around, but the Jets are still projected for 18.6 points per game in the betting markets. That's 31st. When the Jets were 29th in scoring last year (17.6 points per game), Hall only managed an RB22 on RB20 per-game finish.

Geno Smith should be a floor raiser versus Brady Cook, and in the 12 games without Cook in 2025, Hall at least averaged 12.4 half PPR points (RB17). That was just 9.1 with Cook (RB32).

The Jets OL, featuring stud OTs Olu Fashanu and Armand Membou, should be above average, even if we don't trust the QB situation or (washed) OC Frank Reich. He was fired midseason in 2022, fired midseason in 2023, sat out in 2024, and then was interim head coach at Stanford in 2025. What can go wrong?

Hall should be up-and-down as a fantasy RB2 while entering the prime of his career without the complications of an ACL tear. The Jets won't have to force him targets with more supporting talent around him now, but he has to be the featured goal-line back over Braelon Allen to reach a ceiling. Hall had four (4) inside the 5-yard line carries last season. Not good enough.

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Jacobs was arrested on allegations of one felony and four misdemeanors, all related to a domestic violence allegation. His legal team claims his innocence, and the Packers said they are letting the legal process play out.

On May 27th, the District Attorney released Jacobs and did not announce final charges. They have an on-going investigation and could press charges at any time, but for now, the evidence did not meet their burden of proof. There haven't been photos, videos, or detailed police reporting leaked either. Once again, all of this can change at any moment.

The Commissioner's Exempt List does not need a charge to be filed, but it seems unlikely Jacobs would be placed on paid leave if nothing changes. Roger Goodell typically uses evidence brought up in court or in media as justification. So far, that hasn't materialized.

A suspension can come after the NFL's investigation is completed, but that is very likely to happen after the criminal case is completed. If charges are eventually brought, then Jacobs could take this to trial, which typically lasts months to years before being on the docket and finalized. If charges are eventually brought, then Jacobs could plead to a lesser charge if given the option, which typically speeds up the process. That's the easiest way Jacobs ends up serving a suspension in 2026.

The CBA has a baseline of 6 games missed for the first domestic violence case, but that can be fewer or more games based on a variety of factors. There's even precedent of a player, like Jabrill Peppers, who served 7 games while on the Commissioner's Exempt List then was removed from it because it's what his suspension would be if the NFL's investigation found him to be guilty. For that reason, it's hard to see him missing beyond this range.

The most likely outcome is 0 games missed in 2026. The average outcome is closer to 2-3 games missed. And the likely upper outcome is the 6-game suspension.

When active with the Packers, Jacobs has been a top-10 fantasy RB. Without him, Green Bay's depth chart features Marshawn Lloyd and FB/HB Chris Brooks right now. If they knew a suspension was coming, then a Joe Mixon type signing or a James Conner type trade are possible. Lloyd is draftable in the final rounds of best ball drafts now that he's on a practice field.

I moved Jacobs after Kyren Williams and Breece Hall as a boom-bust RB2 in late Round 3.

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This will be a major Waddle bounce-back season after lots of unavoidable factors worked against him in Miami.

As a rookie, Waddle caught 104 passes. That was his only season without Hall of Famer Tyreek Hill. That's the level of schemed-up upside his talent profile contains.

Unfortunately, his 2022-25 era was very up-and-down. There were 16 useless games (WR67 on average) without Tua Tagovailoa playing. But! In games with Tua on the field, Waddle was the WR16 per game in full PPR, all while Tyreek was the WR3 overall ahead of him. There's no question that Waddle is now the No. 1 receiver on his offense after the Broncos traded a fringe 1st-round pick for him this offseason.

In those Tua games, Waddle was leading all WRs in EPA per target. He's very good when he's actually involved, and there's no excuses to not be heavily involved now.

Only 7% of Waddle's targets during that 2022-25 span were screens, too. Coach Sean Payton's offenses are very quick-hitting and manufactured, to the point where with Bo Nix over the past two seasons, the Broncos are 1st in screens (161). Both Marvin Mims and Troy Franklin have averaged 1+ screens per game across those recent seasons. They will kick rocks now. Many of those should go to Waddle.

For reference, Courtland Sutton was the WR23 per game over the past two seasons without being involved in the screen game and during the rookie and sophomore seasons of Bo Nix.

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Flowers is coming off career highs in receptions (5.1 per game) and yards (71 per game), even though Lamar Jackson missed time and was playing well off his MVP pace when available. The 25-year-old receiver has improved, and the target competition is as weak as ever with Isiah Likely out and Mark Andrews aging.

He just has to score more TDs. Over the past two seasons when Lamar Jackson has over 5 passes in a game, Flowers is the WR13 in yards and the WR47 in touchdowns per game. His target share in the red zone is 15.7% versus 27.5% outside of the red zone.

Only being 5'9\"/183 will work against his red zone stats, but Flowers is a positive regression candidate as an upside WR2. That's especially true with the Ravens projected for the 5th-most points in 2026.

Even if he scores around his 5.5 TDs that the betting markets project for him, Flowers is a fine pick at the Round 3/4 turn as the WR17 in ADP. He was the WR14 on WR26 usage last season. In games with Lamar Jackson active, that jumped to half PPR's WR10 on a per-game basis, thanks to a 29% target share.

As a bonus, there's a chance that new OC Declan Doyle plays a little faster and with more pass volume than old-school OC Todd Monken. Over the past two seasons, the Ravens are last in neutral pass rate (45%) and 21st in neutral pace. If Derrick Henry misses time or if the offense changes, it's easy to argue that Flowers' fantasy stock rises.

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Higgins has played 39 games with Joe Burrow healthy since 2022. He's averaged 14.9 PPR points, equating to WR14 per-game production on WR15 usage. Even though he's a vertical ball winner receiver, Higgins is actually leading in success rate on his targets since 2022 when Burrow is healthy. That's incredible!

Right now, Burrow is healthy, and I'd even add that the OL is no longer awful in Cincinnati. Hopefully that means more games for the MVP candidate.

The 6'4\" X receiver also played 6 games without Ja'Marr Chase since 2022, and he averaged 18.1 PPR points in them. That's WR4 per-game since 2022. The contingent upside in the event Chase missed time is obvious, but do not discount it. We'd draft Higgins in Round 1 if he didn't have Chase while Burrow is healthy.

The Bengals offense likely isn't going to change much in 2026 either. It's the same coaching staff with the same defensive question markets. Higgins is a high-floor option in Round 3, particularly in full PPR. He's a simple-brain target (complimentary).

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Loveland moved like a WR on his Michigan tape, which is why I ranked him 8th overall and the Bears selected him 10th overall in the 2025 NFL Draft despite skipping the Combine due to injury. That injury slowed him as a rookie, but Loveland's film was too undeniable to not play more by the end of his rookie season when he was still 21 years old.

His flexibility in his routes, while reaching top-end speeds with such ease is what makes him stand out on film, whether it's against a slot CB, SS, or LB. He outran fast LB Quay Walker on a man-coverage out route. He beat elite athlete S Kyle Dugger on an in-cut for a TD. He beat everyone on choice routes underneath. And he was schemed up downfield shots in heavier personnel, as the Bears essentially view him as a WR. Loveland has all the physical traits to be elite at all levels, to the point that he reminds me of Travis Kelce.

Plus he can block!!! Loveland fully flatbacked Saints DE Carl Granderson to spring a huge run on a very traditional block. He's an even better blocker on the move, which is what he'll be doing most next to Cole Kmet and blocking rookie Sam Roush. Blocking is a strength, not a weakness.

His first game above 75% snaps was Week 8. From Week 8 through the NFL playoffs, Loveland averaged 64.4 YPG as fantasy's TE4 per game on TE3 overall expected fantasy points during that stretch. Loveland's last 4 games including the NFL Playoffs were his true breakout; 97 YPG on 18.2 expected half PPR points per game. Remember, 21 years old.

Since then, the Bears traded away DJ Moore, only replacing him with Kalif Raymond. We fully expect 24-year-old QB Caleb Williams to get better this year with established genius HC Ben Johnson, too. Loveland's environment gives him a clear run way to reach an All Pro ceiling as soon as this season. The Bears are 10th in projected points this year based on their game-by-game betting lines.

Loveland is worthy of buying the hype, all the way into early Round 4 if his current 46th overall ADP climbs. At these prices, Loveland is an absolute target. His consensus season-long projections of 874.5 receiving yards and 6.5 receiving TDs are not far off from Brock Bowers and Trey McBride, yet he goes far later in fantasy football drafts.

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McBride was the TE1 overall in fantasy points per game (14.9), expected points (15.1), targets (9.9), receptions (7.4), and yards per game (73) in 2025. All that led to a 19th overall finish in my favorite all-encompassing fantasy football stat; half PPR fantasy points over replacement per game. He ranks even higher in full PPR.

McBride had better stats with Jacoby Brissett than Kyler Murray in 2025, too. According to the Advanced Stats on UnderdogRankings.com, McBride averaged 81 YPG and 16.9 PPR points on 20.2 expected PPR points with Brissett at QB!!! That was 55.0 YPG and 9.6 PPR/G in 5 games with Kyler.

My warning: That drastic split is not expected to repeat.

Marvin Harrison is likely healthier while entering his 3rd season, 3rd-overall pick Jeremiyah Love was added to the lineup, and new HC Mike LaFleur is expected to call a more run-heavy offense.

That's okay. McBride has room to fall back and still be an elite TE1 worthy of a top-25 overall pick, especially in full PPR redraft leagues. He currently has the highest projected receiving yards (999.5) among TEs on Underdog Fantasy, which is in line with the WRs who are selected in Rounds 2-3.

The harder part will be making the TDs work in a Cardinals offense that has the lowest implied team total in 2026 (18.5 points per game). He's slightly riskier in half PPR best ball with an Underdog ADP of 19th overall than he is in full PPR redraft leagues.

With George Kittle rehabbing, McBride is my favorite TE to watch on film. He is a total freight train after the catch, as he wants to equally run through the chests of DBs as much as he wants to hurdle them. He scored some TDs that he had no business scoring based on sure will, all while Arizona had nothing to play for. Total stud.

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Warren was the 14th overall pick in the NFL Draft and my 20th overall prospect. His unique blend of size (6'6\"/256) and underneath YAC skills made him a high-upside TE1. Those skills flashed as a rookie, even if he was over-hyped as a run blocker and downfield route runner. He's more average in those buckets.

Quickly as a blocker, Warren has the want to and mass to be much better. His head seemed to be spinning a bit while on the move, as he completely whiffed his assignment too often. His short arms did creep up on down blocks against DEs (see: HOU), so there's not the Gronk-level blocking upside some had hoped. That said, he is capable of blocking DEs and staying on the field in all situations. Blocking is more of a strength than weakness because of his great effort and athleticism. Let's just be realistic here.

The good news is Warren hit the ground running as a receiver in a full-time role. Warren averaged 54 YPG in his 13 games with Daniel Jones healthy, as PPR's TE6 on TE3 usage during that span.

Unfortunately, Warren only averaged 30 YPG without Jones and 41 YPG in his final 5 games with Jones when his QB was limping around with a fractured leg. That latter sample is probably what Jones will look like in 2026 coming off a torn achilles to his push-off leg in the worst case scenario. The Colts are projected for the 15th-most points per game (23.4) this year according to the betting markets. Feels fair.

At the same time, Warren is going into his 2nd NFL season, and the Colts didn't replace Michael Pittman this offseason. If the Colts are forced into more pass attempts with an iffy defense and more mediocre offense, Warren can be a full PPR weapon as a potential leading target getter on his own offense.

On tape, Warren is a big target who can make leaping grabs in traffic. He had a great over-the-shoulder grab against the Falcons near the sideline. It was clear that the Colts viewed Warren as an asset on leaks and after quick chips. His build up speed for his size is impressive and worthy of intermediate shots as a first read. This is true as a screen target, too. He led TEs with 8 first downs on screen targets and only trailed Trey McBride in yards off screens. I don't think that changes. His change of direction after the catch is quite good for someone weighing 256 pounds.

Warren is a solid route runner, but he had a lot fewer man-coverage wins than the elites at the position. He's not quite as explosive coming out of his breaks and was given fewer isolated looks. That doesn't mean that can't happen next year, but it was true as a rookie.

Warren has upside and risk at his 69th overall ADP. It's a reasonable price tag for an already quality player on a quality offense with less competition for targets. It'd be a surprise if he didn't finish as a mid-range TE1. Despite being 2nd-worst in completion percentage over expected among TEs (-3.1%) and 3rd-worst in catchable target rate (71%), Warren was the TE11 in yards per game while earning the TE3 overall target share.

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LaPorta only played the first 10 weeks of the year, when the Lions were 2nd in points per game (31.4) and 3rd in EPA per dropback. The offense was explosive, but LaPorta was only the TE15 in expected half PPR points on just 5.4 targets per game. He had no weekly floor due to volume. That's the risk in a balanced offense with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams competing for looks.

Those issues could persist again in 2026.

That said, LaPorta is a star on film and has some of the best advanced stats at the position. LaPorta was 2nd in success rate (67%), 4th in EPA per target (+0.74), and 5th in yards per target (10.1) last year. He flies around the field, and coach Dan Campbell springs him open on leaks and play-action shots. While not a great blocker, LaPorta has improved and can stay on the field for most snaps.

The reality is this elite efficiency is bound to slightly regress, as his aDOT (5.7) and yards per target (10.0) make no sense together.

So LaPorta will need better TD luck to make up the difference. Is that such a bad call in his situation? I don't think so. The Lions are 3rd in projected points (26.1), even if that's a full 5.0 points lower than they averaged last year when LaPorta was in the lineup.

LaPorta is currently priced (104.2 ADP on Underdog) lower than where he finished on a per-game basis last season; 81st overall in fantasy points over replacement per game, which is my favorite all-encompassing stat. I'll buy into that arbitrage, also pointing out that LaPorta's ceiling jumps multiple tiers if something ever happens to Amon-Ra.

LaPorta is one of the best picks at cost. Draft him.

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